Why El Nino is not going to form this year

[targetacqmgt]

NOAA says they have never seen a season were an El nino did not form and stayed form. There yet be one this year, NOAA is confused.

Duhhh:rolleyes:

When Icebergs the size of the state of Rhode Island break off Anarctica and the Bearing Sea does NOT ice up to the point that even ships go now where they have never gone before because the Ice is either NOT there or is thiner than ever before.

What does NOAA not get that the water is COLDER and LESS salty due to the amount of cold fresh water moisture being place in it?? An El Nino needs warm water no?:confused:

[GunnyGene]

What's your point? That the weather is unpredictable beyond a few days?

[targetacqmgt]

No NOAA has their head where sun don't shine or they KNOW the change is Permanent or getting that way fast and do NOT want to alarm the gen public, the weather is changing Permanently and sea water levels are rising Permanently at least for your and my life span. Here in NC NCSU water scientists think the entire Eastern Shore Nags head for example will be under water in 15-20 years.

[GunnyGene]

Weather/climate has never been "permanent". Ever hear about the "Little Ice Age"? "Maunder Minimum"? "Roman warm period", and many, many other changes over the last 4.5 billion years? Visit: http://wattsupwiththat.com/ .

[targetacqmgt]

Weather/climate has never been "permanent". Ever hear about the "Little Ice Age"? "Maunder Minimum"? "Roman warm period", and many, many other changes over the last 4.5 billion years? Visit: http://wattsupwiththat.com/ .

Ja Gunny but "permanent" say over the next 60 years or more. Yup heard about "little Ice age" the others no. Guess I am wondering what is causing our current "long term" changes and how long is it going to reduce food production via heat and lack of rain and snow in traditional grain growing areas. I am not saying the "green" folk are right. But "something" is making major changes that will effect our and world economies IMO,

[Blackhawk Dave]

And the UK Meteorlogical service posted a report and graphs with ACTUAL number, not the tweaked NOAA numbers showing global warming ended 16 years ago. There were the normal range of yearly fluxuations, but no upwards trend.

[targetacqmgt]

Then I don't "get it" Why are the ice caps and Ice sheet near BOTH poles shrinking and NOT replacing the ice that melted?? The 16 yr calc might be related to the earth's orbit being nearer to the sun at that time then receeding- it of course is elliptical not circular.

[GunnyGene]

Ja Gunny but "permanent" say over the next 60 years or more. Yup heard about "little Ice age" the others no. Guess I am wondering what is causing our current "long term" changes and how long is it going to reduce food production via heat and lack of rain and snow in traditional grain growing areas. I am not saying the "green" folk are right. But "something" is making major changes that will effect our and world economies IMO,

The "something" you refer to is called a Non-linear Dynamic System. In common parlance; chaotic behavior, aka Chaos theory. Not the one played with in the Jurassic Park movie, but the real high level mathematical kind.

The planet/solar system is simply far too complex and the weather/climate computer models far too simplistic for anyone to predict what things might look like dozens or hundreds of years in future. It's stupendous arrogance on the part of those who think they can.

[targetacqmgt]

The "something" you refer to is called a Non-linear Dynamic System. In common parlance; chaotic behavior, aka Chaos theory. Not the one played with in the Jurassic Park movie, but the real high level mathematical kind.

The planet/solar system is simply far too complex and the weather/climate computer models far too simplistic for anyone to predict what things might look like dozens or hundreds of years in future. It's stupendous arrogance on the part of those who think they can.

Now THAT makes sense. We are developing computers that have the computing power but not the software algorithims to accurately project. Yeah makes sense.

[GunnyGene]

Then I don't "get it" Why are the ice caps and Ice sheet near BOTH poles shrinking and NOT replacing the ice that melted?? The 16 yr calc might be related to the earth's orbit being nearer to the sun at that time then receeding- it of course is elliptical not circular.

They're not. The Antarctic is gaining ice, and the Arctic loss this past year is due to ocean currents and storms, and it is rapidly recovering. See this: http://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/10/18/sea-ice-news-volume-3-number-15-arctic-refreeze-fastest-ever/

[targetacqmgt]

They're not. The Antarctic is gaining ice, and the Arctic loss this past year is due to ocean currents and storms, and it is rapidly recovering. See this: http://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/10/18/sea-ice-news-volume-3-number-15-arctic-refreeze-fastest-ever/

Thanks Gunny interesting data- I add it to my favorites list. I know the farmers here in NE NC are happy campers this fall peanuts and corn are the highest price per unit in awhile. Probably due to the "drought" in the west and central US.

I just wonder how much grain speculators use weather projection to minpulate grain prices;)

[Old Grump]

The last time we witnessed temperatures anything like that was in the decade 1690 – 1700. Crop failures caused by cold killed off 10% of the populations of France, Norway and Sweden, 20% of the population of Estonia and one third of the population of Finland.

http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2012/02/image16.png
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/02/11/quantifying-the-solar-cycle-24-temperature-decline/
Blame it on General Motors or Peabody Coal Company if you want to but the sun has been waxing and waning for 5 billion years give or take a few weeks and will continue to do so making us hot and cold in turn. Nothing we can do about that. I'm more worried about clean air and water and that we can do something about.

[gvw3]

I remember when I was a kid they told us we were headed for a new ice age. It was getting colder every year. Now its getting hotter every year. This is all bull. They don't have a clue. It's all to make money. More ways to waste our tax dollars.

[FreeSovereign]

There was a thread here, or somewhere while back that showed the Northwest Passage has been traversed several times since coining the term. It is nothing new.

[cycloneman]

I wish they would stopa using all these terms like el nino and la nenia to me it isa all bully shyster.

If you want el nino to come back all you got to do is invite him. I hear he likes to vacation around cinco de mayo.

Honestly the weather shyster could tell us there is an el nino and we wouldn't know any different. Its a weather circus for them. Weather Shysters!

[carver]

The documented warming on Mars, Jupiter, Triton and Pluto have cast the shadow of a doubt on anthropogenic global warming; and seems to indicate that the Sun is the driving force in global warming... who would have thought? In other words if you think man is responsible for global warming, are you blaming mankind for the warming of the other planets also?

One record of solar activity observation goes back four centuries, with consistent data collection: sunspot activity. Increases in sunspot activity mean an increase in solar radiance as, apart from emanating more UV radiation than normal, these are usually accompanied by solar flares and/or coronal mass ejections. The record, courtesy of enthusiastic astronomers who have dully noted sunspot activity since the invention of the telescope, clearly shows that not only have there been more and more sightings since the onset of the industrial era, but also that there were almost none to be found during the period known as the little ice age (1600-1750).

This has been going on since there was a Sun, an Earth, and the other planets! Solar flares and/or coronal mass ejections grow in intensity, and in frequency, just as they slack off, and occur less often. We are in a peroid now since about 1950 where Solar activity is the highest man has ever recorded.

[jedwil]

I wish they would stopa using all these terms like el nino and la nenia to me it isa all bully shyster.

If you want el nino to come back all you got to do is invite him. I hear he likes to vacation around cinco de mayo.

Honestly the weather shyster could tell us there is an el nino and we wouldn't know any different. Its a weather circus for them. Weather Shysters!

Now don't be racist here.


Joking....................................

[cycloneman]

The documented warming on Mars, Jupiter, Triton and Pluto have cast the shadow of a doubt on anthropogenic global warming; and seems to indicate that the Sun is the driving force in global warming... who would have thought? In other words if you think man is responsible for global warming, are you blaming mankind for the warming of the other planets also?

Dont let Al know this. He will set up office to represent the martians in a class action law suit aganist us.

[Carne Frio]

We are a couple of weeks into our annual ice age here. Brrrrrrrrrrrrrrr.

[carver]

Dont let Al know this. He will set up office to represent the martians in a class action law suit aganist us.

And probably win!!!:yikes:

[gad1111]

I might believe the long term predictions if they could get tomorrows forecast right more than once in a while.

Greg

[mranum]

The documented warming on Mars, Jupiter, Triton and Pluto have cast the shadow of a doubt on anthropogenic global warming; and seems to indicate that the Sun is the driving force in global warming... who would have thought? In other words if you think man is responsible for global warming, are you blaming mankind for the warming of the other planets also?

One record of solar activity observation goes back four centuries, with consistent data collection: sunspot activity. Increases in sunspot activity mean an increase in solar radiance as, apart from emanating more UV radiation than normal, these are usually accompanied by solar flares and/or coronal mass ejections. The record, courtesy of enthusiastic astronomers who have dully noted sunspot activity since the invention of the telescope, clearly shows that not only have there been more and more sightings since the onset of the industrial era, but also that there were almost none to be found during the period known as the little ice age (1600-1750).

This has been going on since there was a Sun, an Earth, and the other planets! Solar flares and/or coronal mass ejections grow in intensity, and in frequency, just as they slack off, and occur less often. We are in a peroid now since about 1950 where Solar activity is the highest man has ever recorded.


+1000

It never ceases to amaze me how the one thing in the solar system that we KNOW makes heat, is never discussed when it comes to this global warming bs. "Magnetic North" has been shifting from "True North" for a while now and I never hear of that being discussed as weather related either.

It is man's arrogance to assume that the climate that we have today is the optimum climate for this planet.

[carver]

Instead these small people with small minds think that the heat for global warming is caused by man! We are creating a greenhouse effect! How stupid do you have to be to not realize that the greenhouse effect is the only reason we exist on this planet?

[gvw3]

Where is all that global warming when we need it. Could sure use it here in January.

[BillM]

Then I don't "get it" Why are the ice caps and Ice sheet near BOTH poles shrinking and NOT replacing the ice that melted?? The 16 yr calc might be related to the earth's orbit being nearer to the sun at that time then receeding- it of course is elliptical not circular.

???????? Antarctic ice is at an all time high.

http://www.forbes.com/sites/jamestaylor/2012/09/19/antarctic-sea-ice-sets-another-record/

[targetacqmgt]

Where is all that global warming when we need it. Could sure use it here in January.

Don't I know that-I came back to Great Lakes Naval Station new years eve 1968. I had on a navy sweater, wool jumper and bell bottoms, thick wool pea coat, ear muffs, I stepped outside of the downtown train station and got the shock of the "lake effect wind" at -3F or so and felt like I had NOTHING on:eek:

[targetacqmgt]

???????? Antarctic ice is at an all time high.

http://www.forbes.com/sites/jamestaylor/2012/09/19/antarctic-sea-ice-sets-another-record/

Gunny set me straight on that one:D

[CampingJosh]

It's worth pointing out, also,that ice melt in the arctic wouldn't raise sea levels at all. That ice is all floating anyway, so it is already displacing all the water it will.

There is a lot of hysteria and not a lot of fact to back it up.