armedandsafe
06-22-2010, 06:53 PM
AND, remind your friends and neighbors.
Political Futures
"A new Washington Post-ABC News poll finds that only 29 percent of Americans are prepared to re-elect their incumbent representative in the US House this fall, while fully 60 percent say they are 'inclined to look around for someone else to vote for.' ... Not surprisingly, The Post reports that 'anti-incumbent sentiment [is] at an all-time high.' ... Don't bet on it. According to Larry Sabato, director of the University of Virginia's Center for Politics, no more than 100 of the 435 US House seats on the ballot this November can by any stretch of the imagination be considered 'competitive.' Of them, only 24 are rated genuine toss-ups, and only 16 more are held by one party in a district that leans to the other party. Assuming Sabato is right -- and granting that anything can happen between now and November -- only 40 House seats are truly in play. In other words, roughly 90 percent of US House seats are safe. Sad to say, roughly 90 percent of US House seats are always safe. In the 23 congressional elections between 1964 and 2008, the re-election rate of US representatives dropped below 90 percent only five times -- and only once in the last 30 years. In 2006, a Democratic surge swept Republicans from their House majority -- yet 94 percent of the House was reelected. In 1994, an even larger Republican surge washed the Democrats from control -- but the overall reelection rate was 90 percent nonetheless. 'Nothing is so essential to the preservation of a republican government as a periodical rotation,' declared Virginia statesman George Mason during the debate over ratification of the Constitution. Voters routinely say they agree, but alas, that isn't how they vote." --columnist Jeff Jacoby
From The Patriot Post (www.patriotpost.us/subscribe/
Pops
Political Futures
"A new Washington Post-ABC News poll finds that only 29 percent of Americans are prepared to re-elect their incumbent representative in the US House this fall, while fully 60 percent say they are 'inclined to look around for someone else to vote for.' ... Not surprisingly, The Post reports that 'anti-incumbent sentiment [is] at an all-time high.' ... Don't bet on it. According to Larry Sabato, director of the University of Virginia's Center for Politics, no more than 100 of the 435 US House seats on the ballot this November can by any stretch of the imagination be considered 'competitive.' Of them, only 24 are rated genuine toss-ups, and only 16 more are held by one party in a district that leans to the other party. Assuming Sabato is right -- and granting that anything can happen between now and November -- only 40 House seats are truly in play. In other words, roughly 90 percent of US House seats are safe. Sad to say, roughly 90 percent of US House seats are always safe. In the 23 congressional elections between 1964 and 2008, the re-election rate of US representatives dropped below 90 percent only five times -- and only once in the last 30 years. In 2006, a Democratic surge swept Republicans from their House majority -- yet 94 percent of the House was reelected. In 1994, an even larger Republican surge washed the Democrats from control -- but the overall reelection rate was 90 percent nonetheless. 'Nothing is so essential to the preservation of a republican government as a periodical rotation,' declared Virginia statesman George Mason during the debate over ratification of the Constitution. Voters routinely say they agree, but alas, that isn't how they vote." --columnist Jeff Jacoby
From The Patriot Post (www.patriotpost.us/subscribe/
Pops