Re: guns 4 pennies
Ok, I watched Guns4Pennies for about 6 months. I got an idea how much certain items sold for and who was bidding.
Ideally, you bid on something right when the auctions starts and hope few join in and your opponents drop out early. That is how some bidders get a $600 shotgun for 5 bids and the final price is only $0.63.
Sure, when that happens G4P loses money on that item but on average they make much more profit than losses.
So, finally I decided I had learned the system well enough to pull the pin and buy some bids. woo hoo!
I started bidding on a nice Sig P226 .40SW. Most were final pricing at under 350 bids so worst case I should get to about 175 in and win if I don't quit. Well, some crazy bidders joined the fray and also would not quit. I finally dropped out after 200 bids. That P226 went over 2600 bids final. So G4P made $2000 on a $800 pistol.
OK, bad luck. try again.
Started bidding on an AR15 Colt 6920, $1100 gun. I had seen a couple go under 600 bids so I should be able to run up to 300 or so for my part and maybe win. Early on the bidders would drop out after 10 bids or so each. others would join, bid, drop out. good so far. then some other crazy heavy bidder got on and again would not quit. I dropped out after about 150 bids just to watch what would happen then maybe get in again later. Well, all the other bidders also dropped out and the rifle sold after about 6 more bids. Colt 6920 for around 450 bids. The crazy guy got it for maybe 50 bids.
Ok, now a nice Ruger 22/45 ultralite came up. I had been watching for this one. I thought I would just watch the bids and get in at about 200. The bidding was going back and forth between about 5 different bidders and was running heavy up to 350. I had my mouse over the bid button just waiting for others to drop out so I could get in. SOLD. everyone just left at once and some other guy got that $400 pistol for 5 bids.
This was killing me. I only had a few bids left.
Shotguns. That's the ticket. They all go cheap because everyone bids on the ARs and pistols. Shotguns typically go under 300 bids. some go for 800 or more but usually not.
So I picked a nice Benelli M4 $1600 gun. Watched the bids get off to a slow start with seeming disinterest. After the bids got to 250 I jumped in and it was me against one other guy. I set my auto bidder with 50 bids so I would look like I was in to stay. discourage competition. other guy went to auto also.
my 50 bids were ticking down, 3, 2, edit add 25 bids. still going. others would join, bid 5 or 10 times then drop out. still me and the other guy on auto.
my bids were again ticking down 3, 2, 1, edit add SOLD! WTH! I didn't get the add in time and no one else was lurking to bid snipe the other guy. he walked away with that M4 for a final of about 600 bids, of which maybe 100 were his.
So I took my chances and lost every time. Was it by chance? I still wonder. I do not want to falsely accuse G4P of perpetrating a scam but it seemed the hundreds of auctions I watched for patterns would generally go cheap and the ones I joined suddenly had competition until I ran out.
There are a dozen or so what I call HEAVY BIDDERS that seem to bid WAY over MSRP on many items. They can't be spending that much on auctions when they could just buy outright for less. And I don't believe anyone just likes bidding on auctions so much they don't care about the price and just pay to play.
So how do we know that those that 'win' are actually winners and not just the gun being recycled back into a later auction? Could the winners be 'sponsors' that get free bids just to keep the site looking busy while the real players always lose to the house?
If G4P is legitimate then it is on average a HUGE money making machine. They could afford to give quite a few guns away in cheap auctions.
Recent examples: custom 1911 knighthawk .45 MSRP$2600 went for 17600 bids. The company made $9300 profit after sale.
Keltec RFB (which I really wanted) $1500 went for 11600 bids. profit $6400.
So G4P can afford to lose a Barrett M99 50BMG for 481 bids because no one wanted to waste their bids that early in an auction that was certain to go to 20000 or more. One lucky guy got a cheap prize. but it wasn't me. never is me. what I have I've paid for and that is the way it is for most everyone else.
Guns4Pennies can be fun if you have some money to throw away, you may win a prize but you will most likely feed the pool for the house and some other player to take.
end of rant.