Silence in Syria, Panic in Iran

[Bruce FLinch]

SILENCE IN SYRIA, PANIC IN IRAN

Dr. Jack Wheeler

One of India's top ranking generals assigned to liaise with the Iranian military recently returned to New Delhi from several days in Tehran - in a state of complete amazement.

"Everyone in the government and military can only talk of one thing," he reports. "No matter who I talked to, all they could do was ask me, over and over again, 'Do you think the Americans will attack us?' 'When will the Americans attack us?' 'Will the Americans attack us in a joint operation with the Israelis?' How massive will the attack be?' on and on, endlessly. The Iranians are in a state of total panic."

And that was before September 6. Since then, it's panic-squared in Tehran. The mullahs are freaking out in fear. Why? Because of the silence in Syria.

On September 6, Israeli Air Force F-15 and F-16s conducted a devastating attack on targets deep inside Syria near the city of Dayr AZ-Zawr. Israel's military censors have muzzled the Israeli media, enforcing an extraordinary silence about the identity of the targets. Massive speculation in the world press has followed, such as Brett Stephens' Osirak II? In yesterday's (9/18) Wall St. Journal.

Stephens and most everyone else have missed the real story. It is not Israel's silence that "speaks volumes" as he claims, but Syria's. Why would the Syrian government be so tight-lipped about an act of war perpetrated on their soil?

The first half of the answer lies in this story that appeared in the Israeli media last month (8/13): Syria's Antiaircraft System Most Advanced In World. Syria has gone on a profligate buying spree, spending vast sums on Russian systems, "considered the cutting edge in aircraft interception technology."

Syria now "possesses the most crowded antiaircraft system in the world," with "more than 200 antiaircraft batteries of different types," some of which are so new that they have been installed in Syria "before being introduced into Russian operation service."

While you're digesting that, take a look at the map of Syria: Notice how far away Dayr AZ-Zawr is from Israel. An F15/16 attack there is not a tiptoe across the border, but a deep, deep penetration of Syrian airspace. And guess what happened with the Russian super-hyper-sophisticated cutting edge antiaircraft missile batteries when that penetration took place on September 6th.

Nothing.

El blanko. Silence. The systems didn't even light up, gave no indication whatever of any detection of enemy aircraft invading Syrian airspace, zip, zero, nada. The Israelis (with a little techie assistance from us) blinded the Russkie antiaircraft systems so completely the Syrians didn't even know they were blinded.

Now you see why the Syrians have been scared speechless. They thought they were protected - at enormous expense - only to discover they are defenseless. As in naked.

Thus the Great Iranian Freak-Out - for this means Iran is just as nakedly defenseless as Syria. I can tell you that there are a lot of folks in the Kirya (IDF headquarters in Tel Aviv) and the Pentagon right now who are really enjoying the mullahs' predicament. Let's face it: scaring the terror masters in Tehran out of their wits is fun.

It's so much fun, in fact, that an attack destroying Iran's nuclear facilities and the Revolutionary Guard command/control centers has been delayed, so that France (under new management) can get in on the fun too.

On Sunday (9/16), Sarkozy's foreign minister Bernard Kouchner announced that "France should prepare for the possibility of war over Iran's nuclear program."

All of this has caused Tehran to respond with maniacal threats. On Monday (9/17), a government website proclaimed that "600 Shihab-3 missiles" will be fired at targets in Israel in response to an attack upon Iran by the US/Israel. This was followed by Iranian deputy air force chief Gen. Mohammad Alavi announcing today (9/19) that "we will attack their (Israeli) territory with our fighter bombers as a response to any attack."

A sure sign of panic is to make a threat that everyone knows is a bluff. So our and Tel Aviv's response to Iranian bluster is a thank-you-for-sharing yawn and a laugh. Few things rattle the mullahs' cages more than a yawn and a laugh.

Yet no matter how much fun this sport with the mullahs is, it is also deadly serious. The pressure build-up on Iran is getting enormous. Something is going to blow and soon. The hope is that the blow-up will be internal, that the regime will implode from within.

But make no mistake: an all-out full regime take-out air assault upon Iran is coming if that hope doesn't materialize within the next 60 to 90 days. The Sept. 6 attack on Syria was the shot across Iran's bow.

So - what was attacked near Dayr az-Zawr? It's possible it was North Korean "nuclear material" recently shipped to Syria, i.e., stuff to make radioactively "dirty" warheads, but nothing to make a real nuke with as the Norks don't have real nukes (see Why North Korea's Nuke Test Is Such Good News, October 2006).

Another possibility is it was to take out a stockpile of long-range Zilzal surface-to-surface missiles recently shipped from Iran for an attack on Israel.

A third is it was a hit on the stockpile of Saddam's chemical/bio weapons snuck out of Iraq and into Syria for safekeeping before the US invasion of April 2003.

But the identity of the target is not the story - for the primary point of the attack was not to destroy that target. It was to shut down Syria's Russian air defense system during the attack. Doing so made the attack an incredible success.

Syria is shamed and silent. Iran is freaking out in panic. Defenseless enemies are fun.

[Pistolenschutze]

You know, Bruce, I've said for a long time that if we don't end up taking out the Iranian nuke facilities, sooner or later, the Israelis will . . . with tactical nukes if necessary. Ahmadinejad is playing with matches in a gun powder factory.

[White Hawk]

I can't help but wonder if Iran will do something monumentally stupid. Ahmadinejad believes in the Islamic version of the apocalypse, and wants a starring role. Will he get impatient and fire before Iran is ready to go to war?

The other thing to look at is his recent trip to New York. As a publicity stunt, it was quite a success. His poll ratings in Iran got a huge boost for giving the U.S. the finger on our soil, and his lies, question-dodging and propaganda charmed a lot of astoundingly gullible Americans. Such as this woman who posted on her DailyKos blog:

I know I’m a Jewish lesbian and he’d probably have me killed. But still, the guy speaks some blunt truths about the Bush Administration that make me swoon...

...and the 45% of Kozzers who wanted Ahmadinejad to be the U.S. president instead of Bush.

With that crowd, I'm surprised Bush still won the poll.

Then Ahmadinejad followed up with a booty call to Chavez. Just what we need, another Cuban missile crisis. Chavez, when he's not busy grabbing control of every industry and information source in his country, has always been telling his people that America, especially Bush, is out to kill him. Never mind that we could've taken him out any time over the last several years.

I think it was Will Rogers who said "Diplomacy is a way of saying "nice doggy" while you look for a big stick." Well, we're trying diplomacy, but it's Iran that is building their Big Stick, a nuclear weapons arsenal. And the ever-useless U.N. is doing soooo much to protect world peace and prevent the buildup of such weapons...

It's all enough to make me want to buy an electric car.

[delta13soultaker]

When the West unanimously admits one simple truth about those 2 nations, it will probably be, as is typical, after it is insanely apparent: those are not rational civilizations. They are symbols of disfunctional logic and barbarism. If the power holder roles were reversed...we'd be toast.

I like fighting fire with fire. (They have sponsored so much terrorism and been directly responsible for so much needless death...and made possible for so many hatred fueled deadly organizations to form on their soil and use their banks....how many innocent people killed over the past 30 years would be alive if those to countries had ceased to be? How many families, from all over the globe, would of never suffered? Iran and Syria are the national equal to infected rabid dogs. How long do you tolerate a hate filled beast on your street? You don't. You destroy its body.)

We should of toppled them lonnnng ago.

At a minimum, starting in 2001 (if ya are the reactive type instead of pre-emtive sort) we should've been lobbing cruise missles in there every time we thought they had something more advanced than a set of wheels behind a donkey. 'It's Monday...lets send 91 missiles into their port cities...warehouses will be first.'

Pay Turkey and Pakistan to accept the refugees. But make Syria/Iran cease to have an economy or industry. They don't deserve it. The fact they even have a railroad after the mass terror they sponsor is a slap to the face of the modern human race.

Buying com-bloc air defense? One day a com-bloc bio-weapon will be in a crate going to them from an old Soviet state...and end up in our citizens.

[berto64]

I think it's a grand development!

[Marlin T]

I’m surprised that Dr. Wheeler didn’t talk about Israel’s new satellites that take photos every 90 min or so. Great way to get a copy of the shipping invoice don’t you think, hummmmm?

If you listened to the last Dem debate, Hillary knew about the strike and didn’t denounce Israel for it. Interesting.

Some in northern Iraq said they saw a mass of US planes and choppers waiting to go, hummmm interesting.

Some reports say that the Israel military was there on the ground collecting information and probably illuminating the site with their lasers. Hummm

Turkey gave the Israelis clearance to use their airspace according to a few reports that I read.

We reemployed some sanctions against North Korea, hummm.

They are symbols of disfunctional logic and barbarism. If the power holder roles were reversed...we'd be toast.

Isn’t Sharia law great? I don’t know who this Delta guy is, but he has a clue about what is going on!

[strayshot]

Good information. I did hear about the attacks..and wondered why so little news on it.

[Pat Hurley]

Great post, Bruce.

Woe unto you who messes with the Jews. I think that's written somewhere.

Golly, those muslims are the most backwards, hapless, and barbaric buffoons on planet earth. May God's wrath be swift and sure.

[Bruce FLinch]

I heard today that a Syrian Official admitted Israel bombed a Nuclear Facility on Sept 6th! That info was disavowed by another Syrian Official,later.

But I think they did hit a Nuke Fac. Go Israel!

[Pistolenschutze]

Yup, I saw that article as well, Bruce. Open mouth, insert foot. Oh well, if the Syrians whack off his head for his faux pas, no loss.

[Bruce FLinch]

I Guess Iran does have a reason to be concerned...

[catfish83861]

Well as much as I do Not approve of some of the items that have transpired during President Bush's current tour of duty. One thing I am almost 100% positive of, given the reason, He will order the attack on Iran. I believe that is one of their major concerns today. His daddy stood behind his word and now a lot of liberals and many Islamic individuals I believe are thinking the same thing for G.W. Maybe he just isn't a Coca Cola Cowboy. I sure as heck hope not. catfish

[Silencer]

Originally Posted by Pistolenschutze

Yup, I saw that article as well, Bruce. Open mouth, insert foot. Oh well, if the Syrians whack off his head for his faux pas, no loss.

Originally Posted by Bruce FLinch

I heard today that a Syrian Official admitted Israel bombed a Nuclear Facility on Sept 6th! That info was disavowed by another Syrian Official,later.

But I think they did hit a Nuke Fac. Go Israel!

Yeah, I read that a few days ago. Interesting details. Look like a practice run 'for the big show.' Just like Iraq.

[17thfabn]

I'll repeat here what I said in my post on Pistolenshutze thread "Isreal sent a message.

I think it is great that Israel did a repeat preformance of it's attack on Iraq's nuke facilities in 1981, with it's recent attack on Syria's nuke facilities.

I believe that an attack on Iran's nuke facilities would be a much more difficult proposition for the Israelis for two reasons: 1. Distance 2. Area

The distances Israeli forces would have to go to attack Iran's nuke are much greater than those to Syria and Iraq. Plus they would have to fly over either Syria and Iraq or Jordan and Saudia Arabia to get to Iran. They could go around through Turkey, but this would be even a longer flight, and would add further political difficulties.

Iran is twice as big as Iraq and Syria put together, which gives you more area to hide in.

I may be wrong, but my impression is that Israel's forces are set up for a war against Syria and Egypt, not more distant Iran.

Maybe the mesage being sent to Iran is if Israelis can attack Syria so easily the U.S. can do the same to Iran.

I have heard speculation that if a liberal democrat is elected, President Bush will launch an attack after the 2008 elections but before the new administration takes office.

[Tom]

I think Putin’s recent visit to Iran was to reassure the Iranians that they had Russian support, and to warn us not to attack. I think Putin has been orchestrating the Iranian effort in Iraq from the beginning.

I don’t know why we don’t just send in B-2’s to hit the training camps of the foreign fighters the Iranians are training for insertion into Iraq, production facilities of the munitions that the Iranian’s are sending into Iraq, and the nuke facilities, then deny we had anything to do with it. If they couldn’t see the bombers, how could they prove it was us?

[Pistolenschutze]

Originally Posted by 17thfabn

I believe that an attack on Iran's nuke facilities would be a much more difficult proposition for the Israelis for two reasons: 1. Distance 2. Area

Tactically, 17th, I must agree with you. It would be a difficult mission for Israelis since, as far as I know anyway, they do not possess any sort of stealth bomber technology. Undoubtedly, were we to do it, that would likely be the method. Yet I would not be willing to count the Israelis out if they really decided they needed to do it. That raid they pulled off at Entebbe proved just how resourceful they can be when it's required. It would not surprise me if Israel has a few strings for its bow that no one outside the government and the IDF knows about. Especially with American support, it could be done.

[17thfabn]

Pistole this is one of those times I hope you are right and I am wrong. I don't doubt the U.S. has the capability, I just doubt our will. On the other hand I don't doubt the Israeli's will, I doubt their capability.

There was a story about this raid on ABC news tonight. They noted how little this story had been reported. They stated that the U.S. was plaining on a special forces raid on these facilities in Syria. At some point this summer planing was canceled. Did the U.S. know that the Israelis were getting ready to strike?

[millwright]

Just what did the Israelie's hit in Syria ? Some reports I've read have it as an AA site......Which could be guarding a nuke facility, to be sure.......

Despite some in Congress snide comments, I have to agree with the statement attributed to President Bush regarding how membership in the nuclear club by some ME states are an almost surefire guarantee of WW3. >MW