Wetbacks leaving AZ

[berto64]

Migrants flee as new hiring law nears

Immigration hard-liners cheer, but economic fallout begins

Daniel González
The Arizona Republic
Aug. 26, 2007 12:00 AM

Undocumented immigrants are starting to leave Arizona because of the new employer-sanctions law.

The state's strong economy has been a magnet for illegal immigrants for years. But a growing number are pulling up stakes out of fear they will be jobless come Jan. 1, when the law takes effect. The departures are drawing cheers from immigration hard-liners and alarm from business owners already seeing a drop in sales.

It's impossible to count how many undocumented immigrants have fled because of the new law. But based on interviews with undocumented immigrants, immigrant advocates, community leaders and real-estate agents, at least several hundred have left since Democratic Gov. Janet Napolitano signed the bill on July 2. There are an estimated 500,000 illegal immigrants in Arizona.

Some are moving to other states, where they think they will have an easier time getting jobs. Others are returning to Mexico, selling their effects and putting their houses on the market.

The number departing is expected to mushroom as the Jan. 1 deadline draws closer. After that, the law will require employers to verify the employment eligibility of their workers through a federal database.

"I would say we are losing at least 100 people a day," said Elias Bermudez, founder of Immigrants Without Borders and host of a daily talk-radio program aimed at undocumented immigrants.

Immigration hard-liners say the exodus is a sign the employer-sanctions law is working, even before it becomes official. The law is aimed at shutting off the job magnet by imposing harsh penalties on employers caught knowingly hiring unauthorized workers. Violators face a 10-day suspension of their business license for a first offense and could lose their license for a second offense.

"This is exactly what it is supposed to do. (Illegal immigrants) have no business being here, none," said Rep. Russell Pearce, R-Mesa, the main architect of the employer-sanctions law. "Shut off the lights, and the crowd will go home. I hope they will all self-deport."

The ripple effect
Immigrant advocates, business groups and analysts say the exodus is having a ripple effect that could add to an already-tight labor market and dampen the state's economy.

"Nobody is going to be untouched by the ramifications of this law," said Ann Seiden, spokeswoman for the Arizona Chamber of Commerce and Industry. The chamber is one of a dozen business groups that have filed a lawsuit seeking to block the law on the grounds that it is unconstitutional.

Despite a slowdown in job growth, including the immigrant-dependent construction industry, Arizona's labor market remains tight with just a 3.7 percent unemployment rate in July, according to the state Department of Economic Security. An unemployment rate below 5 percent is considered full employment, meaning anyone who wants a job can have one and employers must compete for workers.

Illegal workers leaving the state could make the labor market tighter, which could lead to higher wages but also higher costs for goods and services, said Don Wehbey, the department's senior economist.

Analysts say it's too early to measure the effect the employer-sanctions law is having on the economy. But it could be severe if a large number of undocumented immigrants leave the state.

"If these workers leave, it's going to hurt the economy and put the state at an economic disadvantage with other states," said Judith Gans, program manager for immigration policy at the University of Arizona's Udall Center for Studies in Public Policy.

A study released by the center in July concluded that economic output would drop annually by at least $29 billion, or 8.2 percent, if all non-citizens, which include undocumented workers, were removed from Arizona's workforce. About 14 percent of the state's 2.6 million workers are foreign-born, and about two-thirds to three-fourths of non-citizens are undocumented, she said.

Several key industries in Arizona, including construction, manufacturing and agriculture, depend heavily on immigrants, legal and illegal, to fill gaps in the workforce, especially in low-skill jobs, she said.

The labor shortages are due to a native-born population that is aging and more highly educated and therefore doesn't produce enough low-skilled workers to meet growing demand. As a result, immigrants are doing jobs that Americans won't do and that Americans aren't available to do, she said.

"The frustration (with illegal immigration) is understandable," Gans said. But Arizona risks shooting itself in the foot "when it tries to take matters into its own hands."

Pearce doesn't buy that. He believes the state can easily do without undocumented workers. Although there may be some short-term economic disruptions, the free market will adjust in the long run, he said.

"Whatever adjustment takes place in the market, it will be worth it," Pearce said.

Sen. Robert Burns, a Peoria Republican who helped craft the employer-sanctions law, said what's also needed are more channels for immigrants to enter legally.

But only the federal government can do that, and Congress failed to pass immigration reform. Meanwhile, the state was forced to take action because people are "fed up with illegal immigration," he said.

"I wouldn't wish hardship on anybody and I don't want the economy to go south, but maybe we need a jolt to show people what's going on," Burns said.

Looking to leave
Abel Ledezma, a 31-year-old telephone technician from Chihuahua state in Mexico, has a work permit, but his fiancee, Cecy, a waitress, is undocumented. Ledezma put his house on the market in July after the governor signed the law. The two plan to move to Albuquerque, which Ledezma thinks is more welcoming of immigrants, legal and illegal.

"I feel like the people's attitudes towards not only immigrants but also Hispanics has become very rude" in Arizona, Ledezma said.

For example, Ledezma said, a man recently slammed the door in his face when Ledezma arrived to fix his phone.

"He said to me, 'Speak to me in English,' " Ledezma said. Ledezma speaks fluent English, though with an accent.

Adrian, a 34-year-old undocumented immigrant from Sonora, plans to move back to Mexico as soon as he can sell a 2-acre tract he owns in Tonopah.

"Yes, we are desperate to leave the moment I sell my property," said Adrian, who rents a house in Goodyear. He asked that his last name not be used because of his immigration status.

Adrian said his sister also is selling her house with plans to return to Mexico. He knows other undocumented immigrants who are refinancing their houses and getting cash out so they can return right away rather than waiting for their houses to sell.

Adrian said he plans to use the profits from the sale of his property to open some sort of business in Rocky Point, a booming beach resort in Sonora. He also is considering moving to Canada, where he heard jobs are plentiful and getting a work visa is easier than in the U.S., where Adrian has been unable to legalize his status in 13 years.

Adrian, a foreman for a major Valley homebuilder, was planning to construct a house for his wife and three U.S.-born children in Tonopah. But with the employer-sanctions law about to take effect, he is afraid he could lose his job any day: He works with fake documents, something Adrian said his employer suspects. Finding another job will be that much harder once the law's verification requirements kick in.

"There is a lot of uncertainty," Adrian said. "I supervise five workers, and the boss told us they are going to be checking the documents of each worker. If the papers are no good, they are going to get rid of those workers."

Impact on housing
Adrian has been calling his real-estate agent every day to see if there are any potential buyers for his property.

But Guadalupe Sosa, the agent, said this is a bad time to be selling. Undocumented immigrants are putting their homes up for sale when there is already an abundance of houses on the market, adding to a glut. Mortgage defaults and foreclosure also are rising.

In July, the Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service listed 52,336 homes for sale in the Valley, up 17 percent from a year earlier. The average time on the market for houses sold in July was 95 days, compared with 65 days a year earlier.

What's more, Sosa said, many immigrants are not buying homes because they are worried about losing their jobs under the law. That has made it even harder to sell homes in immigrant neighborhoods.

She pointed to three of her West Valley listings that are owned by illegal immigrants who want to leave Arizona.

One was a brick four-bedroom selling for $167,000 in the historic district of Avondale. Another was a beige stucco house selling for $210,000 in a new subdivision in southwest Phoenix. One was a blue townhouse selling for $95,000 in west Phoenix.

"A lot of people are selling because of the uncertainty," she said. "They have one or more family members who are undocumented, and without that extra money, they can't make the mortgage."

Other areas of the economy also are taking a hit because of the employer-sanctions law.

Rosa Macias, vice president of Muebleria Del Sol, said projected sales are down 30 percent since the governor signed the law. The Phoenix-based furniture business has five Valley stores, and 85 percent of its customers are Latino immigrants. She said immigrants aren't buying because they are worried about losing their jobs or already have been let go.

"We have been noticing sales are really, really low," she said.

The drop in sales forced the company to lay off 10 of its 75 employees, Macias said. Macias is also telling suppliers not to deliver more inventory until sales pick up.

"I am very worried," she said.

Reach the reporter at daniel .gonzalez@arizonarepublic.com or (602) 444-8312

[durk]

I heard on the local radio (am) channel last night that an estimated 25,000 has left or will be leaving Oklahoma B-4 our law goes into effect Nov 1 of 07!
Look out bordering states!! There is just not enough smilies for this post!!

[Silencer]

Great, with all our free food programs and charities, they'll all come flocking here.

[White Hawk]

Originally Posted by berto64

Migrants flee as new hiring law nears

Immigration hard-liners cheer, but economic fallout begins

Daniel González
The Arizona Republic
Aug. 26, 2007 12:00 AM

<snip>

Adrian, a 34-year-old undocumented immigrant from Sonora, plans to move back to Mexico as soon as he can sell a 2-acre tract he owns in Tonopah.

How can someone who cannot prove they're in the country legally be able to buy land here? There's another part of the problem.

Illegal alien activists claim that the U.S. cannot afford to deport all of the illegal aliens from this country. Between the bilingual teachers in public schools, the free medical care, jailing the criminals, the increased demand on our fuel supplies, etc., we certainly can't afford to keep them here either. So how about using the RICO statutes to confiscate the property they bought with the money from their illegal jobs and auction that off to offset the costs? That'll mean a flood of used SUV's and trucks on the market...

Also, as the Arizona and Oklahoma laws have demonstrated, we don't have to pay to deport them. Just demagnetize the country and they'll leave on their own.

[SnakeCharmer]

**

[strayshot]

Originally Posted by SnakeCharmer

I agree with Whitehawk, but I also have sympathy for some business owners.

Well,..then you close the business. It's as simple as that. If the demand for whatever crop, product or service is great enough it will either survive or fold and resurface later when there's a demand.
I can't open a business and claim my business can't operate unless I break laws.

[SnakeCharmer]

**

[armedandsafe]

lawsuit seeking to block the law on the grounds that it is unconstitutional.

So, it is now unconstitutional to penalize people who break the law? OH, I see it now. Only those people who break the law by aiding and abetting other lawbreakers. I get it. (barf)

Notice that the law and the people supporting it say "undocumented" or "illegal" and those opposed to the law say "immigrant" or "worker?"

Notice that the report cited in the story hammered on "non-citizen" employees? Notice how the law hammers on "illegals?"

Pops

[armedandsafe]

SnakeCharmer, I agree with your statement that there needs to be a way for those who want to work to get here LEGALLY and get that work. I grew up during the "bracero" program days and that program worked.

However, I do NOT agree that every person who broke the law to enter this country should automatically receive legal status just by being alive in this country on some magic day.

I would hate to see some of my kids leave because their families had to obey the law and leave the country. I would love to see some of those families get the oportunity to legalize their status and come out of the shadows. I know of some families I would drive to the border personally. It would cost me less in the short run, much less over the long haul. (Yes, that is a pun. )

Pops

[strayshot]

Originally Posted by SnakeCharmer

That's not a good solution.

Lets give it a shot...In a capitalist society it should all balance out in the end. I say we at least try following the law before we just throw it to the wind.

[durk]

Originally Posted by SnakeCharmer

That's not a good solution.
Who do you think works in the fields to cultivate and hand pick the produce you put in your cart at the grocery store? Or, the plants you pick up at Lowes to put in your yard? Or, who sews the buttons on your shirts?
You get the idea...this country has allowed itself to become dependent on illegal labor and there just aren't any 'Americans' willing to pick up the slack when they leave.

Ok, why do you think legal citizens won't do the work? Not enough pay? Well, if the illegals become legal they will want more pay, right? Then what? I guess some prices might go up? I would think the health care system would feel some relief in the long run. I think these people are doing so-called crap jobs because they are illegal and don't want to rock the boat.
I guess we will see.

[358 winchester]

Just hang them all

[SnakeCharmer]

**

[durk]

Originally Posted by SnakeCharmer

Our H2-A guys are paid $8.23/hr, housing and utilities paid by the company along with their transportation costs to and from Mexico. On-the-job injuries are covered by workers comp, paid by the employer. No taxes are withheld from their pay.

Do you think there are legal Americans that would NOT want a deal like that?? Do you wonder why there are so many Americans that want them gone?

[zadig39]

I hope one day soon I can type a post like "Wetbacks leaving Houston area". Untill then I'll just keep looking for a place to move.

[durk]

Originally Posted by zadig39

I hope one day soon I can type a post like "Wetbacks leaving Houston area". Untill then I'll just keep looking for a place to move.

It looks like Arizona and Oklahoma might have some housing available soon!

[White Hawk]

Originally Posted by durk

Do you think there are legal Americans that would NOT want a deal like that??

The problem is that a certain political party has made "not working" pay better. Seriously, when someone would rather be on welfare than work, you can only do so much.

However, I'd like to point out that the same politicians and activists who cry about how the gap between the rich and the poor is widening in this country and label those who want the color-blind immigration laws enforced as "racists" or "bigots", are the very same people who insist that we need a lower-rung "labor class" from a third-world country to keep the economy going. And that, my friends, is a racist and elitist way of shoring up a false economy.

They are also the same arguments used by plantation owners and other elitists who didn't want to get their hands dirty back in the 1800's, when the discussion then was whether we should end slavery.

[Bruce FLinch]

I hope to see the economy right itself after the illegals are gone. It will be an adjustment, tho & I'll suffer along best I can. Other than crop picking, I don't think the illegals might be doing much for me, besides raising my taxes & Healthcare costs. Here in Cal, we have a boatload of illegals, but it is estimated only 3% are actually working the fields. The majority are in the construction, hotel/restaurant biz. We don't eat out, travel, or construct much @ my house.
I have given a few neighbors crap for hiring unlicensed contracters, who are all obviously illegals. They don't think one of these guys falling off their roof, won't end up owning their house, once the lawyers & Insurance Co's get done w/them.
2 years ago I went to the Emmergency room. With Insurance, I had to cough up $850.00 out of pocket. Here, an uninsured person gets a free pass.
The illegals can go. The jobs that are left vacant can be filled by DOCUMENTED WORKERS, or today's lazy american kids.
I also do not understand how an Illegal can purchase a house/property here. We sure as heck can't go to Mexico & purchase a house, illegal or legal. Mexico has some very strict immigration policies. And they ENFORCE them. Gee I wonder how this discussion would have started, if the US Govt had just enforced the law to begin with?

rant off! Thanks for reading!

[berto64]

There are plenty of people to take their places, just park a bus outside the ghetto and pick'em up off of the corners and the basketball courts.

They want to eat, they can work for it! Get'em off of the Welfare rolls. This goes for for the baby dropping females too.

They can do the jobs the wetback women are doing & maybe their pregnancy rate will drop. (Not tonight, I have a headache.)

[glocknut]

Originally Posted by durk

It looks like Arizona and Oklahoma might have some housing available soon!

The moon has quite a bit of unoccupied real estate as well, but i have no plans of moving there either any time soon....

mike
gn

[berto64]

Awww Mike,

You might like the ol dry heat in Arizona with 6-10% humidity.

I lived there 30 years.

[Pat Hurley]

Few stories have uplifted me as this one did. Maybe there's hope on this subject after all.

God Bless America.

[DWARREN123]

Once the law goes into effect things will settle down after a while. I welcome people to the United States of America who come here legally but if they come as criminals then they should be treated as such. The illegals did not come to build they come to take and we as a country can not afford this, the cost is way too high a price to pay.
Just my opinion folks.

[charagrin]

Originally Posted by DWARREN123

Once the law goes into effect things will settle down after a while. I welcome people to the United States of America who come here legally but if they come as criminals then they should be treated as such. The illegals did not come to build they come to take and we as a country can not afford this, the cost is way too high a price to pay.
Just my opinion folks.

Seconded-Char

[barusah]

[PHP]