Positive Messages from Iowa
Iowa went fine guys. While the result was not quite as quite good as we would have liked today, there are plenty of positives to take out of Iowa and we are in a much better position than many of our competitors. Below are some positive messages we should be using when we talk about Iowa to friends, family, undecided voters and the media.
(1) Contrary to what some here believe, we did significantly outperform our polls, just as we had been saying we would do all along.
According to Real Clear Politics, we were polling at 7.3% in the last five polls taken before the caucus (on average) yet, as of writing this, we are at 9.8%, meaning that we performed more than 34% better than we polled. That is a substantial overperformanceóabout twice as good as anyone else in the field.
(2) Despite the fact that we put very little effort into Iowa until very late in the game and despite the fact that Ron Paul spent less time in Iowa than any other candidate (in a state where in-person campaigning is essential) and despite our shabby treatment by the mainstream media we still were just 3 points out of third place.
(3) We destroyed former front-runner Rudy Giulianióabsolutely destroyed him with almost triple his vote totalóand donít be fooledóRudy didnít compete here because he couldnít compete not because he didnít want to.
(4) The winner in Iowa, Mike Huckabee, is completely unacceptable to large portions of the Republican party from Rush Limbaugh to the National Review crowd. Iowa has a much higher percentage of evangelicals than will primaries coming forward. Huckabee ainít going to win New Hampshire and has little national organization.
(5) Meanwhile, of the other contenders, it was an unmitigated disaster for each of them. Despite spending tons of time and million of $ in Iowa Romney was crushed. And heís going to lose to McCain in New Hampshire. McCain meanwhile, did not get the bounce that he needed from this performance. He is still low on cash and though he is likely to win New Hampshire itís not obvious how he does well afterwards. Thompsonís performance was likewise weak given his sole focus on Iowa and his one time front-runner status. He is going absolutely nowhere in New Hampshire. He is also totally out of money. He may drop out of the race soon. Meanwhile Giuliani was embarrassed in Iowa and is toast going forward.
(6) Exit polls suggest that we WON Independent Voters, who are the key crossover constituency that a Republican candidate is going to need to win in the general election.
So where does that leave us? We have a wide open race right now. We are likely to be top 3 in Wyoming and we should also do fairly well in South Carolina and Nevada, where we have spent time building our base while everyone else was in Iowa.
Virtually every other candidate is broke and with the exception of Huckabee, they wonít pull in more money based on their Iowa performance. Meanwhile, we have millions in the bank and with our huge grassroots base, we can easily raise millions more. That money will matter a lot more in states that, unlike Iowa donít allow candidates to meet every voter. This is where we begin to use our finances to our advantage.
Weíre not going to have a clear winner going into Super Tuesday on Feb. 5th. Right now, we have a large funding base and the organization to get out our message and reach voters. Almost all our competition doesnít because they have spent all of their time and money in Iowa and New Hampshire. While it is still an uphill fight for the nomination (as it always was, eternal optimists on this forum aside) we are coming out of Iowa in a better position than we came in and we are well placed to do some real damage in the primaries going forward.
The Revolution Continues!