Strange Current Events

[LurpyGeek]

Hi all.

I've been doing a lot of reading trying to understand the current conflict unfolding in Georgia in the Ossetia region. (See this site for more info.)

I think the way I understand it, this is the simplest way I can explain it...

Georgia was part of the Soviet Union and since it split from the USSR it has had a shaky relationship with Russia. There is an area on the border called Ossetia where separatist forces who want to split from Georgia and gain their own independence (many of them have Russian citizenship) have caused trouble for a long time. The separatists have ramped up their attacks recently, Georgia counter attacked and Russia invaded with huge amounts of military force to aid the separatists (saying that they are "helping to quell the violence".

This is why this is interesting... I'm sure that most people here have heard of Tom Clancy. One of his book series that was turned into a video game is called Ghost Recon. It details the actions of a small covert operations unit called the "ghosts" who are deployed to unstable areas of the world to provide secret aid and information.

It was released in 2001. Here is some of the text from the first mission briefing.

Welcome to Tbilisi (Georgian Capital), gentlemen - I hope you got some shuteye on the flight from Bragg, because now that we're here we've got a lot of work to do.

Here's the situation: We've been deployed at the request of the Georgian government to help them deal with rebels on their Russian border. Our area of operations will be the South Ossetian Autonomous region - 1500 square miles of small villages and rugged backcountry. The Ossetians have been skirmishing with the Georgian army for years, but lately the attacks have escalated to the verge of all-out war. Washington thinks that the Russians have engineered the current flare-up as an excuse to step in and annex the whole region.

The following missions involve huge columns of Russian armor entering the area and attacks by tactical and strategic bombers.

Spookily accurate, eh? Not only that but the first mission takes place in AUGUST 2008. Tom Clancy is creepy.

What are your thoughts? I am very interested in your opinions / knowledge as they are far beyond my own.

[LurpyGeek]

Other things I should have mentioned...

Part of the tension between Georgia and Russia has pivoted around the fact that Georgia is trying to become part of NATO and probably will be soon.

Also, though this is a localized conflict, there are some very important oil pipelines that travel through the area. The rest of the world will be affected.

Interesting that this all started happening when the rest of the world is looking at the olympics and doesn't want to think about a nasty little war.

[artabr]

Ain't the first time incidents in Clancy's books come true. It is kinda spooky.

Art

[Vladimir]

The incident is in Georgia's hands. The democratically elected representatives of South Ossetia requested Russian peace keepers. One of my friends mocked the Russian response as "some guy popped a fool and so the Russians roll in with tanks, proportionate response eh?" I kindly reminded him last time some Georgians popped a fool it ended in ethnic cleansing- hence the very presence of the peace keepers.

The Georgian president is just trying to shore up support and make the Russians look evil, I am guessing it is going to fail miserably.

For too many, like John McCain, we live in a Cold War mentality, and no matter what the Russkies are the bad guys. Unfortunately it is because of people like that, that this kind of ploy works. The Georgians provoked the incident and many point fingers at the Russians.

Of course it is failing miserably. The Georgian government probably hoped for scores of verbal onslaughts against Russia, the only thing anyone has said is 'we hope it ends quickly' yadda yadda. Even an unsourced (for obvious reasons) quotation from a State Department official placed some blame on the Georgians.

The unfortunate thing here is it is west vs. Russia, as Russia isn't clearly west, nor clearly east, that's what it comes down to. Look at Serbia. Serbia and Georgia have a lot in common- Serbia didn't try to westernize so we support Kosovo, Georgia got on our good side so we could care less what their "Kosovo" wants. It doesn't matter that the people ASKED for Russian help, it doesn't matter that the people WANT autonomy from Georgia- we like Georgia so it doesn't matter. And taking ALL that into mind, we STILL are not really doing much to support Georgia in the conflict. Massive failure on the Georgian government's end.

Instead of criticizing Russia, at this point I'd like to applaud their balls in protecting Russians abroad. Some massive majority of the South Ossetian people have Russian citizenship. I mean the Mexicans just took a border guard captive in Arizona and what did we do about it?

[LurpyGeek]

Originally Posted by Vladimir

I mean the Mexicans just took a border guard captive in Arizona and what did we do about it?

Well, we didn't attack south of the border with strategic bombers and columns of armor. I'm not saying that the Georgians did anything right, but I do feel that the magnitude of the Soviet... excuse me, Russian response is puzzling.

Although we're not in a cold war anymore and a cold war mentality isn't the right way to conduct current foreign policy, it is undeniable that we are seeing a resurgent Russia that wants to make a statement. They had some very hard times at the end of the '80s and through the '90s, but their economy has grown quite a bit in the last few years.

[Vladimir]

Originally Posted by LurpyGeek

Well, we didn't attack south of the border with strategic bombers and columns of armor. I'm not saying that the Georgians did anything right, but I do feel that the magnitude of the Soviet... excuse me, Russian response is puzzling.

Although we're not in a cold war anymore and a cold war mentality isn't the right way to conduct current foreign policy, it is undeniable that we are seeing a resurgent Russia that wants to make a statement. They had some very hard times at the end of the '80s and through the '90s, but their economy has grown quite a bit in the last few years.

I'm pretty sure we did nothing though, that's my point. I wish we did a little more.

Sure their response was intense, but you are forgetting there are several peace keepers already in place- the Georgians responded pretty heavily pretty quickly (reportedly shooting down 4+ migs even) and so the tanks rolled in as reinforcements. Because of the time difference most of us found out about the war with the start of the new deployments. But in fact it started before that, the deployments were in response to the beginning war.

Whats wrong with a renewed world power wanting to flex its muscles a little? We do it all the time, our allies do it (anyone remember when Israel slipped the poison in the guy's ear, and intended to deliver the antidote all along?) and no one bats an eye. It entirely comes back to us vs. them, no matter what they do we have to cast a negative light on it.

EDIT: Here are some picture-journal links that may be good. I won't have a chance to read through them until tomorrow, the site always has a clear Russian bias but pictures don't lie.

http://english.pravda.ru/photo/report/ossetia-3717
http://english.pravda.ru/photo/repor...a_georgia-3721
http://english.pravda.ru/photo/report/ossetia-3723

[Marlin T]

So James, when are going to call for Russian help in Washington?

[Vladimir]

BP is denying Georgia's claims that their pipelines were attacked by Russian migs.

http://kommersant.com/p-13078/r_500/...eline_attack_/

(Kommersant is a fairly balanced look, frequently criticizing the previous Putin administration and not afraid of calling out the lack of freedom of the press).

I'm starting to get pissed about this. I spent 45 minutes trying to call the Hannity show to fix Hannity's view on this.

Originally Posted by Marlin T

So James, when are going to call for Russian help in Washington?

heh

[millwright]

The Russians do have an "image" problem TBS. Mostly of their own making, too. Even now denial is still the game on the fate of the Georgian kulaks. And having Putin as HoS isn't helping. He surely doesn't want Georgia to go NATO, IMO. >MW

[Vladimir]

According to this article Georgia has opened irrigation channels in an attempt to flood out a city in South Ossetia. Additionally it says that Georgia may have temporarily pulled troops out of South Ossetia (though other reports indicate troops are still there and surrendering to Russian troops) there is a large movement of troops north to the region. In addition Georgia withdrew all their troops from Iraq to aid in combat against South Ossetia and Russian peace keepers.

http://kommersant.com/p-13074/Georgia_Tskhinvali/

[Vladimir]

Supposedly Russian Medvedev is pushing for France to play the role of mediator, and Russia is intent on having the current Georgian government overthrown via tribunal with France as mediator. Logical conclusion since the talk show hosts have no idea what they are talking about (no way is Russia going to try and annex Georgia) nor is Russia going to return to the status-quo, which I also applaud them for. If we return to the status-quo we are going to end up with the Israeli-Lebanese conflict that maintains a shaky peace and explodes over into war every few years. No one, including Russia, the United States, NO ONE should settle for a Georgian government that demands re-integration of South Ossetia. The people of South Ossetia demand autonomy from Georgia. Kudos to Russia for standing up for what the people want. We did it for Kosovo, the only reason we aren't doing it here is "Georgia is our friend." Same old political games, Obama claims he doesn't play them but proves again he does- he stands for what is safe before he stands for what is right. I never expected McCain to support South Ossetia in this case because he despises Russia but still... somebody please stand up for what is right?

http://kommersant.com/p1010382/Russi...South_Ossetia/

[Marlin T]

Alright James, lets root for the right thing and support a communist governments overthrow of a republic.

Good one James.

Through conversations with you in the past about this subject, you usually fall on the side of the Russians, which is fine. This shows me whose side you are on, that is why I asked you if we’re going to ask for the communists help in your home state. It seems you are more of defender of communism than anything else.

Maybe you could hook up with one of our new members (Alva whatever) that openly declares himself as a communist and have a party.

This is all on the Russians and I hope they suffer the consequences of invading a free republic.

Dropping them from the G8 should only be just a start.

[LurpyGeek]

Originally Posted by Vladimir

NO ONE should settle for a Georgian government that demands re-integration of South Ossetia. The people of South Ossetia demand autonomy from Georgia. Kudos to Russia for standing up for what the people want. We did it for Kosovo, the only reason we aren't doing it here is "Georgia is our friend." Same old political games, Obama claims he doesn't play them but proves again he does- he stands for what is safe before he stands for what is right. I never expected McCain to support South Ossetia in this case because he despises Russia but still... somebody please stand up for what is right?

So we should continue to fight and fracture the world until every township is happy to be independent from their neighbors? Russia doesn't give a crap what the people of South Ossetia want. This is an opportunity for them to grab some land, test some weapons, train some soldiers and make a statement that goes far beyond the caucasus.

Once again, I'm not on Georgia's "side". They likely wouldn't be in this position if they had used a little foresight and made a statement of their own through calculated use of negotiation and force.

[Vladimir]

Originally Posted by Marlin T

Alright James, lets root for the right thing and support a communist governments overthrow of a republic.

Good one James.

Through conversations with you in the past about this subject, you usually fall on the side of the Russians, which is fine. This shows me whose side you are on, that is why I asked you if we’re going to ask for the communists help in your home state. It seems you are more of defender of communism than anything else.

Maybe you could hook up with one of our new members (Alva whatever) that openly declares himself as a communist and have a party.

This is all on the Russians and I hope they suffer the consequences of invading a free republic.

Dropping them from the G8 should only be just a start.

EDIT II: I am damn proud to be an American, and I am damn lucky to have been born here with the opportunities I have been blessed with. But you know who I have to thank for that? My great grandfather who happened to be Russian.

I love this country, are we perfect? Of course not. Have we made mistakes, yeah (and not just teeny-tiny ones either). Do I sit there and pick at every little mistake we have ever made like some sorry-for-myself-liberal, no, because I love this country and it doesn't matter that we have problems- EVERYONE has problems.

But I'm also damn proud of my heritage. Does Russia have problems? Of course. Are they perfect? No. A lot of their **** is taken completly out of context, and a lot of their **** they just screw up (sound like any other country, yea I dunno about 190 others out there). Their "shutting down free media..." taken out of context. There is still plenty of free media (hell I've linked you to two in a single day). Their buzzing American naval vessels, just dumb.

But kids will be kids. They are what... 17 years old compared to our 232 years? How can we hold them to the same level we hold ourselves?

Invading Iraq, taken out of context. We are not fighting a war to eliminate Muslims, we are not trying to steal oil... Allowing Osama bin-Laden to escape our grip in the 90's, just plain dumb.

To judge Russia for it's Soviet history is just ludicrous, it would be like the rest of the world judging us for giving the Native Americans small-pox. **** happens, get over it. I'm not old enough to remember the Cold War, I'm not old enough to remember what the Soviet ideology threatened us with. What I am old enough to remember is Yeltsin bravely climbing that tank to defiantly oppose an attempted subversion of democracy, what I am old enough to remember is communist ideology (in not just most the world, but also in Russia) is dead. Russia as a country is younger than I am, I hope you don't judge my life based on every single little mistake I might have made in my past, just like I hope you don't judge your own country for every little single mistake we have made.

As for Russia invading a free republic (ignore the fact that South Ossetia wants to be a free republic, but was invaded by Georgia), if you want to brush up on your history and current events (like the Soviet Union no longer existing) I would love to engage you in genuine political dialog. But not until we can contain our discussion within the real world.

[Vladimir]

Chechens are volunteering for the South Ossetian defense.

http://kommersant.com/p1010381/Russi...etia_conflict/

[TranterUK]

I will add this is going to get really interesting really quickly.

Lets hope everyone keeps their heads.

Oh and Vladimir, your not too young for the cold war, its still going, Sweet and Sour anyone?

[TranterUK]

Originally Posted by Vladimir

pictures don't lie.

With due respect Vladimir, pictures often lie very well indeed.

I have seen a side shoot their own civilians for the photo opportunity. There is a well known photo of dead Germans in N. Africa in WW2, who seem to have british boots and socks on! And those are just for starters..

[LurpyGeek]

Funny thing about Chechnya... the people there wanted independence as well. Russia didn't exactly rush to their aid the same way they have with South Ossetia. I guess it depends where the line on the map is whether or not someone is a "freedom fighter" or a "rebel separatist."

I'm not criticizing Russia for the mistakes in their Soviet past. I'm criticizing the nation's current return to Soviet ideals and methods. I appreciate your views and agree with the fact that the world has become a place where liberal-minded politicians think that sternly worded letters are an effective corrective action (just look at the U.N.'s response to the conflict) and the use of force is never warranted. I agree that there are situations where war is very necessary

Also, I fully admit and recognize that the U.S. has made a large number of "not small" mistakes in the past, but though I may stand behind the country I do not stand behind the errors that have been made. The discussion was about the Caucasus, not Native Americans or the Iraq war.

[Silencer]

It's "put up, or shut up" time for Russia.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=58gyKAzG8Wo

[Pistolenschutze]

Originally Posted by TranterUK

I will add this is going to get really interesting really quickly.

Yes, it is Tranter, and it is a far more complex situation than most realize. Isn't it funny how most wars are like that?

I would like to share with you all a letter I received from one of my former students. She now lives in the US and is married to an American citizen, so at least she is safe. This young woman was born in Georgia, but raised in Germany and is a German citizen. She does still, however, have close family in Georgia. I asked her what she knew of this situation. This is what she said:

It is a very complicated situation. It is not really about South Ossetia or Abkhazia. And it is not about Georgian soldier's provokating Russian soldiers like Russian press said. The Russian peacekeepers at the Georgian borders have been training last couple of month. Also, the Russian people from South Ossetia were evacuated days before the bombing happend. Last year, Russia deported every single Georgian person from Russia over night. They threw people into cargo airlines and without any explanations they were deported. Everyone thinks that it is a very well planned attack. They believe that Russia was waiting on Olimpics so, that no one would pay attention to what they were going to do with Georgia. Yes, that country has been recognized as an independent republic. The real problem liesf irst of all, in oil pipeline that runs through Georgia and second of all in Goergian-US relationship. When Georgians were deported from Russia last year, Georgian president asked for their explanation, Putin's answer was that they chose to be friends with America and their American friends should take care of them. So, it is only about oil and US-Georgian friendship. I feel bad that 146million Russians are against 4.6 million Georgians, all the georgian troops (2000 soldiers) are stationed in Iraq right now and they are not getting any support from anyone. EU, UN, NATO and other organizations sent delegation to Georgia for diplomatic negotiations but Russia is refusing to agree on anything. Meanwhile people are getting killed and cities are being bombed. I called my family today. I guess all the airplane tickets are sold out until August 23rd. Georgian Airline is flying even more flights because all the tourists and terrified people are leaving. She said that they stay up all night because airplanes are flying above their city and they show all day long on TV how Russians are continueing to bomb and how people get killed. My family wants to contact German embassy if they offer emergency flight for German citizens to get them out of country. I'm following the news on internet, and talk to them couple times a day. I just read that Georgian troops were withdrawn from SOuth Ossetia to show Russia that they really want peace but it seems that Russia is been ignoring everything from Georgian side, as well as from International organizations. That's all I know for right now.

[Marlin T]

This is an excellent post Pistol and thanks for the attached letter from your student. Sure it is a couple of days old, but still holds a couple of truths.

The first one being, the taunting by the Russians. This is not limited to just a couple of days, more like a build up overtime. Especially starting when the Russian Mig shot down the Georgian surveillance drone. Like I said then, that was an act of war.

Another truth in that letter is about the worth of the Russians word. Once again they have said that they do not intend to further … But the record shows that they can not keep their word and have continued to advance and continued to bomb.

I’m really sad to see Russia start to turn back to its communist ways. That being said, those countries that want to join NATO should be allowed at the soonest possible time to keep them from being scooped back up into communism.

This should be a bit easier than the last time they tried, as there has been a shift in power in leaders of the NATO members.

[LurpyGeek]

Very insightful, Pistol. Thank you for sharing.

[Vladimir]

Originally Posted by LurpyGeek

Funny thing about Chechnya... the people there wanted independence as well. Russia didn't exactly rush to their aid the same way they have with South Ossetia. I guess it depends where the line on the map is whether or not someone is a "freedom fighter" or a "rebel separatist." ...

My responses were not to the issue in general but to Marlin's comments, I think that puts them in better context.

Originally Posted by Pistolenschutze

I would like to share with you all a letter I received from one of my former students. She now lives in the US and is married to an American citizen, so at least she is safe. This young woman was born in Georgia, but raised in Germany and is a German citizen. She does still, however, have close family in Georgia. I asked her what she knew of this situation.

The letter is a great personal look at the situation, but rarely is the best, most nuetral position delivered from a Georgian citizen (just like Putin isn't likely giving us the best explanation either). The letter has some truths, but is ignoring several others. For example it pins all the lying on Russia's part, but ignores the lies coming from the Georgian government. For example their claim that Russia was attacking their pipelines- a statement refuted by BP, who should know since it is their oil pumping through the lines. Clearly, as in any war, there is a series of half-truths and flat-out lies coming from both sides. I'm not defending Russia's execution of the war, what I am defending is the action they have taken (that is their decision to go to war in general).

Originally Posted by Marlin T

This is an excellent post Pistol and thanks for the attached letter from your student. Sure it is a couple of days old, but still holds a couple of truths.

The first one being, the taunting by the Russians. This is not limited to just a couple of days, more like a build up overtime. Especially starting when the Russian Mig shot down the Georgian surveillance drone. Like I said then, that was an act of war.

Another truth in that letter is about the worth of the Russians word. Once again they have said that they do not intend to further … But the record shows that they can not keep their word and have continued to advance and continued to bomb.

I’m really sad to see Russia start to turn back to its communist ways. That being said, those countries that want to join NATO should be allowed at the soonest possible time to keep them from being scooped back up into communism.

This should be a bit easier than the last time they tried, as there has been a shift in power in leaders of the NATO members.

Still missing the mark. In what ways has Russia turned back to communist ways? Awfully general statement with no facts to back it up. Again they have pulled troops back (they haven't claimed to stop bombing by the way- and even then it is only the Georgian government which claims there is still bombing, and considering some of their half-truths it isn't easy to believe right off the bat, and in addition to that there are South Ossetian troops not under the control of Russia who could be fighting on their own behalf still).

Again stuff is taken out of context. Just like in any other peacekeeping operation Georgia was to stay the hell out of South Ossetia, again I find it hard to believe so many are trying to defend the Georgian government when last time they went into South Ossetia it ended up in ethnic cleansing, now I am fairly sure no one here is a big supporter of ethnic cleansing so again not sure how you can defend the Georgian government's actions here. Anyway, like any other peacekeeping operation Georgia was to stay the hell out of South Ossetia, they decided to fly a spy-drone into their airspace, and they suffered the logical consequences. You think a Palestinian drone over Jerusalem wouldn't be shot down?

Again this all comes back to the same old stupid games we play every time. Rather than support who is right in the conflict, we are supporting the guy who is quick to be our friend. You know who made that mistake once, Russia- remember their little pact with Hitler? Remember another time that mistake was made, remember those two little guys we armed- you might have heard of them... Saddam Hussein and Osama bin-Laden?

Just because someone pretends to be our friend today, doesn't mean we should help them get away with genocide. That kind of thing has shown itself to come back and haunt us.


EDIT: I will try and go in depth more on the Georgian situation the letter mentions. What it fails to mention is Georgia is Russia's Mexico. And again I applaud Russia for doing something about its illegal immigrants. We give them free education and health-care, Russia closed their financial loopholes and kicked a bunch of them out. Yet again the exact same things us conservatives are calling for- but we only support it when our "friends" do it.

[Pistolenschutze]

Originally Posted by Vladimir

The letter is a great personal look at the situation, but rarely is the best, most nuetral position delivered from a Georgian citizen (just like Putin isn't likely giving us the best explanation either). The letter has some truths, but is ignoring several others. For example it pins all the lying on Russia's part, but ignores the lies coming from the Georgian government. For example their claim that Russia was attacking their pipelines- a statement refuted by BP, who should know since it is their oil pumping through the lines. Clearly, as in any war, there is a series of half-truths and flat-out lies coming from both sides. I'm not defending Russia's execution of the war, what I am defending is the action they have taken (that is their decision to go to war in general).

She isn't a Georgian citizen, Vlad, she is a German citizen, but still has family in the Republic of Georgia, family that is currently being bombed by Russian attack aircraft. Yes, I'm certain her view is somewhat biased; yours or mine would likely be as well under the same circumstances. As with virtually all conflicts, there are two sides here, yet I find it difficult in the extreme to rationally explain the amount and degree of force Russia is bringing to bear against this small nation and its duly elected government. Whatever the outcome of the actual fighting, Russia appears as a gigantic bully--indeed an anathema--in the eyes of the world, and will hurt them far more in the years to come than any amount of oil control or border security they might gain, or believe they are gaining.

[Marlin T]

The Russians are try to relive their glory days,

Lets support this while we are at it James.

``The Moscow authorities will use this opportunity to remind Ukraine of the damages of allying itself with NATO,'' said Geoffrey Smith at Renaissance Capital investment bank in Kiev.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...efer=worldwide