Contrived US Ammunition Shortage

[fedupdon]

Contrived US
Ammunition Shortage
From Charleston Voice
3-8-9

From an undisclosed, but reliable source. I'd like to know who told Remington to cut back on production....
______

Less than 10 days ago I went to buy my wife a handgun from a large national sporting goods retail outlet near Boise. They have 3 very large sets of shelves that are normally stacked high with every imaginable type of ammo, but on this day they had maybe 2% of their normal stock and 0, yes ZERO .38 cal. When I asked the salesman about it he said that they have not been able to get much and when they do it sells within a few days.

Because I am so concerned about what is unfolding in our country I decided to check around. Out of 5 major outlets I was able to obtain 2 boxes of .40 cal. and 1 box of .38, 250 rounds total. The story from each salesman was the same, there is none available and they don't know when they will receive more.

At one location I got talking with the clerk and he told me that his brother works for Remington and has run their ammo making machines for over 10 years, in the past few years they have run 12 hours a day 7 days a week. TWO WEEKS after our last elections their management informed them that they were to cut back to 2 1/2 days a week and only run 8 hour a day. He said they had 50 semi-truck trailers waiting to be loaded but that they could not fill them.

A small family owned gun store I have dealt with for the last several years had quite a bit available but I was told again that they have scoured the entire area and bought everything they could find to resell, and they thought what they had would be gone by this Monday, tomorrow. After talking more with the owner he told me that last Wednesday and Thursday his staff had spent the entire time calling every gun store in Oregon, Idaho, and Washington and could not locate anything more than a few boxes here and there. While I was in the store he took off to drive all the way to Montana to get what was available there in a few small towns, that is at least a 16 hour round trip drive.

Apparently over thirty people were waiting for an ammo shipment in Mt. Home, Id. and when the Semi finally arrived it had only 12 boxes of pistol ammo aboard and they were told not to expect anymore in the near future.

I haven't heard this situation mentioned anywhere, and I would never have discovered it if I hadn't gone to purchase a gun.

Something very strange is happening out here. I can only hope that it is a local phenomenon, but I fear that is much larger. Please inform your readers so that they can find out for themselves.

[islenos]

There are shortages everywhere, due, for the most part, to panic purchases.

[millwright]

In some ways the "ammo shortage" reminds me of the "great toilet paper debaclel" created by Johnny Carson a couple of decades' back.......

Panic buying by hoarders isn't helping, since the major "shortage" is brass. Copper, already a critical material, has been in short supply for some time as some mines have shut down and others are facing declining yields. Offshore sources have their own problems affecting production as well. Add to that increased military consumption in Iraq and training.........

And remember, as the world develops, its demand for copper increases, too. >MW

[Marlin T]

Originally Posted by islenos

There are shortages everywhere, due, for the most part, to panic purchases.

Panic purchases?

I think not! More like a smart investment due to Obombas stances and voting record when it comes to the second amendment.

[shuttle28]

I'm probably a total fruit loop on this one but i think you've all missed this one. Lets give this some thought. Here are a few hints. gun control, environmentalist agenda gets card blanche, bogus shortage of materials.



A government large enough to give you what you want is a government large enough to take what you've got.

[CampingJosh]

Originally Posted by Marlin T

Panic purchases?

I think not! More like a smart investment due to Obombas stances and voting record when it comes to the second amendment.

I think they are panic purchases even still. Many people, seeing Obama's record, made massive purchases well in advance. Those who did not (or would not) see Obama's real position are now panicking, as they should be.

[ponycar17]

Like I said before, the guy at WalMart laughed at me condescendingly for buying so much BEFORE the election. Now, that WalMart is out of essentially everything. I do not believe the manufacturers have cut back. That is a fallacy. They are not State run, and will not cut back at the expense of profit. I believe demand has ballooned like nothing seen before, and for just cause. People are scared and taking note of every move out of this new Socialist administration. Ballistic fingerprinting, microstamping, registration, confiscation... They're all up for grabs in this administration's agenda.

[Mjolnir]

I also do not see any benefit to the manufacturers cutting back production especially with the huge jump in demand. Anymore it's hard to know what to believe though.

[islenos]

Originally Posted by Marlin T

Panic purchases?

I think not! More like a smart investment due to Obombas stances and voting record when it comes to the second amendment.

I don't know about where you live but the gun stores around here have a lot more people at the counter eyeballing firearms. Largely they are first time buyers asking a lot of questions. What has brought them to the stores? The uncertainty of a chaotic world.

Then there are ones’ such as myself. I have taken in account the assets at hand and purchasing ammo to fill in the gaps. I don’t feel that my actions are so much panic as are a ‘smart investment’ due to the uncertainty of a chaotic world.

Either way panic or dread or whatever you call it, has driven seasoned shooters and first time buyers to the counter at the same time, hence the nationwide shortage.

[1shot1k]

There is something that has happened. I believe most issues have been covered here , but is probably also a situation cause by more than one factor.

I do not believe it is a "supply in demand" lesson learned from the oil refiner's and distributor's ..for then..I belive we would see desired ammo on the shelves , but , at overnight prohibitive pricing.

For those too young to remember the "Carter" oil shortage days ....(emphasis on days ) the oil companies learned a valuable lesson from the "lines , fighting , panic and better yet...loss of profits due strictly to closing the tap(s) " and subsequent {local or Fed mandating of - odd/even pump days...etc....}...

They learned a lesson well ...and you will see it has carried them well into our present day.....that lesson was ( and is ) ....raise the price all needed , just dont tell
U.S. public there is no oil.....

As to this ammo shortage , that has become more widespread and reported throughout .....I at first thought that the initial run from election day cause shortages on weapons and ammo that were yet to recover...but if the story is true concerning an insider working at plant....there must be more at hand.

My first inclination is that there must be more to ..or that we are closer to actual Federal legislation regarding - either , amounts purchasable by individuals or the implementation of the new "ID" ammo.

It still does not make sense to me though, as any legislation would almost certainly leave room for "grandfathering" existing ammo...unless - earlier meetings have raised this issue of such losses , and the makers are being subsidized even now ...with some of the large amounts of "economy funds" to slow/stop producing while retooling or awaiting legislation.....

and I dont know about you...but I cant think of many more reasons why such a plant could cut production by half...leaving customers in front of empty shelves...?

I do also believe though , that ammo has been routed to larger areas for quicker dispersion/sales or to satisfy larger demands...as there is still no dangerous low shortages here in DFW , as reported elsewhere.

But I firmly believe that if a factory is cutting production by one half..it is being subsidized.......

[armedandsafe]

The only reason I could understand for cutting back a line would be to ramp up another line or a new line. If that were the case, people would not be working part time.

Just thought of another possible. If raw material is short,they might cut back a civilian product line to keep their govt contract lines making quota. If that were the case, I suspet there would be announcements.

Pops

[gs1sniper]

In Alabama two weeks ago, a man at the range went to two Wal Mart's and an Academy Sports and no 9mm. If you look on the Hogdon web sight you will see that they are only working 4 days a week. IF they were trying to keep up with demand, why are they not on 24/7?

[ponycar17]

Originally Posted by gs1sniper

In Alabama two weeks ago, a man at the range went to two Wal Mart's and an Academy Sports and no 9mm. If you look on the Hogdon web sight you will see that they are only working 4 days a week. IF they were trying to keep up with demand, why are they not on 24/7?

I'm just guessing that you're correct but I do have some background in manufacturing philosphy...

If they're working 4 days/week they're likely maintaining 1 shift at 10 hrs./day for those 4 days. If they go any larger they'd likely be required to obtain another shift. That's double the cost, and perhaps the cost increase gained in ammo would not justify the cost in another shift?....

This is a complex matter. As demand increases exponentially, manufacturers have to determine if the demand is sustainable. If it is, they'll increase prices. If those price increases do not stave off demand, then they'll increase production at that price. In the end, the price point is at a reasonable value given the demand.

Give the market a chance. Price points will stabilize eventually. It may not be your favorite brand on top of the pricing structure (that you choose to buy) but you'll lean to calibrate to a different muzzle velocity and bullet drop in the end...

[shuttle28]

As I said before, I'm probably a total fruit loop on this one. everyone called me a dumba-- when i pulled out of the stock market at 13000 and predicted 7500, and its not bottomed yet, 3500-5000. Here are a few hints. gun control, environmentalist agenda gets card blanche, bogus shortage of materials. and yes, there are more. the obama administration is evil genius. one step at a time.

p.s. Lord I hope i'm wrong.



A government large enough to give you what you want is a government large enough to take what you've got.

[artabr]

Originally Posted by gs1sniper

In Alabama two weeks ago, a man at the range went to two Wal Mart's and an Academy Sports and no 9mm. If you look on the Hogdon web sight you will see that they are only working 4 days a week. IF they were trying to keep up with demand, why are they not on 24/7?

Unless they started something new, Hodgdon does not make loaded ammo, only gunpowder and some reloading supplies.


http://pajamasmedia.com/blog/nationw...rtage-hits-us/

Skyrocketing demand has been emptying the shelves of America's gun stores. Here's why.

February 28, 2009 - by Bob Owens

If you, like thousands of other Americans, have Googled to find out why we are in the middle of a nationwide ammunition shortage, you would have stumbled across this 2007 blog entry.

In it, I corrected a poorly researched Associated Press story by Estes Thompson that claimed the military’s consumption of ammunition was responsible for police ammunition shortages here in the United States. Few things could have been further from the truth, but it seems rather apparent, in retrospect, that the goal of that AP article wasn’t to find the truth as much as it was to (falsely) lay blame for the police ammunition shortages at the feet of George W. Bush.

The real fact of the matter is that the military got the bulk of its small arms (pistol, rifle, machine gun) ammunition from one contracted ammunition plant, and that plant wasn’t even running near capacity. The military’s consumption clearly wasn’t to blame, and anecdotal evidence and statements from ammunition manufacturers strongly suggested that police departments themselves caused the 2007 ammunition shortage by purchasing far more ammunition than they had in the past.

But what is causing our current ammunition shortages here in 2009?

Much of the demand comes from continued high law enforcement demand, the same demand that led to shortages two years ago. Police agencies around the nation have become more militarized in recent years and two trends within this militarization have led to greater police ammunition demand.

An increase in the size and number of paramilitary police units

Once upon a time, highly trained, heavily armed police units with alphabet-soup acronyms such as SWAT, SRT, SRU, or ERT were generally found as part of large, metropolitan police departments. Today, law enforcement agencies of every size — including some university police forces — have SWAT-type units armed with some combination of submachine guns, assault rifles, and sniper rifles to add to the traditional compliment of pistols and shotguns. To become proficient to the level expected of these units, each officer must fire thousands of rounds in training every year.

An increase in the use of “patrol carbines” in law enforcement

Some agencies prefer to call them “patrol carbines”; others refer to them as “tactical rifles.” But whatever you call them, rifles based upon the AR-15 are becoming increasingly common as a weapon deployed to police officers outside of SWAT units, for some very logical reasons. AR-type rifles extend the range at which patrol officers can engage armed criminals, and because rifles have more practical accuracy than pistols, they can potentially reduce the number of shots fired to neutralize a suspect. Paired with the right kind of ammunition, the .223 Remington/5.56mm caliber rifle also has surprisingly less over-penetration, theoretically reducing threats to civilians who might be downrange. Each of these weapons will also require officers carrying them to fire hundreds of rounds in training each year, and in a city that rotates rifles from one shift to another among their patrol units, this can necessitate tens of thousands of rounds of training ammunition.

Fears of draconian gun and ammunition restrictions

The 2008 elections that saw the Democratic Party extend their power in both houses of Congress and saw Barack Obama elected president made gun owners very nervous, and with good reason.

We have a president that has favored gun bans and who desires to reinstate the horribly flawed 1994 assault weapons ban authored by our rather dim vice president. We also have radically anti-gun majority leaders in both the House of Representatives and Senate, and a Congress quite willing to pass massive, bloated laws without even bothering to read the contents. Fears of encroachment are certainly warranted.

Economic instability

As economies become unstable and people lose jobs, crime rates go up. It is an economic fact of life. Many people who are worried about an increase in crime arm themselves during economic downturns, leading to an increased demand for firearms and ammunition.

As a result of all of these factors, manufacturers of firearms and ammunition saw demand increase to unprecedented levels as civilians have made a run on the kind of firearms they suspect that gun control advocates presently in charge will try to outlaw.

This includes all handguns, all semi-automatic rifles (especially those targeted by the 1994 assault weapons bill that expired in 2004), and most semi-automatic shotguns.

Matt Reams of Sierra Bullets noted that after the 2008 presidential election demand shot up 50%-100% for bullets used by handguns or rifles in military calibers, and says, “Law enforcement has seemed to increase quite a bit the last year or so. The individuals jumped in after the elections and pushed our orders over the top when we were already running in high gear.”

Federal Premium/ATK is the largest ammunition manufacturer in the world, running the Lake City Army Ammunition Plant for the U.S. military under contract; it also is a major supplier of law enforcement and civilians. In a statement, the company noted “unprecedented demand” for law enforcement ammunition. While other corporations are presently laying off workers and shutting down operations, ATK is in the middle of capital improvements to further increase production capability.

Rick Shoupe of PMC Ammunition, which has a more civilian-focused market for his company’s products, reflected in his explanation:

Shortly before the presidential election the dam broke as far as U.S. gun and ammunition sales are concerned. I believe it is a reaction by the general public because of two main reasons. Number one, the political environment which results from the attitudes about gun control in the majority of Congress and the president himself. They are anti-gun. Number two, the current financial crisis in the U.S. has added to the frenzy, causing again the general public to want some sort of personal protection. Just in case they need it.

We are seeing a bubble in demand like I have never seen before and I have been in this business for 35 years. This demand is in addition to the military and law enforcement that also continues. PMC has expanded production to try and handle as much of the demand as it can before the demand starts to drop. Even so, the first scent of legislation being introduced to Congress will light another candle in the demand for these products. It will not end until the legislation is passed.

Individual shooters are stockpiling thousands of rounds of ammunition because of fears of future punitive taxation or outright bans of certain kinds of ammunition. Law enforcement agencies are also stockpiling ammunition to make sure they have enough on hand to meet training requirements. The shortage we are seeing is the result of both agencies and private citizens hoarding the most sought-after ammunition.

Thus, this shortage is the result of an accordion effect that has developed over the past few years.

Law enforcement agencies have been rapidly increasing their ammunition consumption because of how they are rearming, causing a permanent increase in demand. Just as ammunition manufacturers began to cope with that increase, a second run, based upon a downward-turning economy and rising fears of laws targeting gun and ammunition, dramatically expanded demand yet again.

Shortages of ammunition and firearms can be expected to continue for as long as it appears our overreaching federal government is a threat to our individual liberties, our economy continues to falter, and our police agencies keep militarizing.

It’s going to be a long ride.

Stock up while you can.




Art

[rockntractor]

most bullet have a lead core. i had trouble replenishing my supply of lead and linotype for bullet castng. here in oklahoma they shut down our lead mines due to environmental concerns imposed by the feds. lead demand is up they use it to make batteries for those little whoosey girly prius toyotas and other little electric trash cars the arts and cressant crowd drives.envirmentalists would make good mulch.

[artabr]

One thing I have noticed is that it seems Winchester and Federal are clamping down on dealers about selling Winchester Ranger SXT and Federal HST to the general public.
These are supposedly LEO only loads. I guess this is to keep the gun grabbers off their backs. Distributors are sending E-mails to their dealers about this. Anybody get one?

This sucks. I like my Rangers.


Art

[islenos]

Originally Posted by artabr

One thing I have noticed is that it seems Winchester and Federal are clamping down on dealers about selling Winchester Ranger SXT and Federal HST to the general public.
These are supposedly LEO only loads. I guess this is to keep the gun grabbers off their backs. Distributors are sending E-mails to their dealers about this. Anybody get one?

This sucks. I like my Rangers.


Art

I just picked up some Winchester .45 PDX1's last weekend, nice rounds

[ampaterry]

Wow, so MANY great posts in this thread!

I will add just this:
My conversation with the guy in the sporting goods department at Wal-Mart.
He said in his YEARS of selling guns and ammo, he had NEVER sold as much of EITHER as he had since the election.
His shelves were largely empty, but that was due to HUGE increased demand, not a decrease in supply. If production had been CUT, this huge spurt in sales would not have been possible.

Consider the clout that major chains like Wal-Mart have as opposed to the neighborhood gun shop. Wal-Mart will have their orders for tons of ammunition filled FIRST before the local shops order for a few boxes will be shipped.
It is simple economics and business decisions on the part of the manufacturers.

I did notice that the ammo I bought was still made in the USA, which pleased me very much, considering the blind stampede toward cheap Chinese junk in other industries.

[bcj1755]

I know it's next to impossible to find 9mm FMJ around here. When I can find it, I generally grab a box or two, even it means that I'm broke afterwards. 7.62x39 is kind of spotty as far as lead core ammo goes. Steel core Wolf ammo is rather plentiful in certain stores (the 122 grain JHP, but the Military Classic 124 gr 8m3 JHP has dried up, glad I bought a case of 1000 the same day I bought my WASR). 8mm Mauser is very spotty around here, and rather expensive when you can find it. After I get some goodies for the WASR, I'll save up and buy a few hundred rounds of Yugo surplus for my K98k.

[shuttle28]

Thank You Rockntractor;
I'm not saying that everyone here isn't right about the panic purchases but there's more to it than that and Rockntractor touched the edge although i don't believe he realizes it and that he needs to go farther. here's another hint. several members of the current administation have said "we can't let a good crisis go to waste" gotta think outside the box just alittle.




"Stop the Stampede to socialism"

[ponycar17]

Originally Posted by ampaterry

Consider the clout that major chains like Wal-Mart have as opposed to the neighborhood gun shop. Wal-Mart will have their orders for tons of ammunition filled FIRST before the local shops order for a few boxes will be shipped.
It is simple economics and business decisions on the part of the manufacturers.

ampaterry, I think you're right in normal times but these are not normal.

Businesses deal with WalMart as a cushion for their manufacturing load to some extent. They can produce the heck out of goods and ship them to WalMart in large orders. They take a huge hit on price by dealing with WalMart but the deal allows them to stay at a high production capacity to keep manufacturing efficiency high. You save money when you can keep X amount of people busy and focused on their job 100% of the time versus 80% of the time. Every time a person returns to a job after a break or other assignment they have to acclimate themselves back to what they need to be paying attention to...

Also, when dealing in huge bulk quantities like you would for WalMart there are fewer product changeovers. Product changeovers diminish operating efficiency and increase costs of the goods since it takes a bit of time to get changed over and have the product correctly built.

An example would be fleet truck sales. They're all the same color paint, same interior, same drivetrain and same tire/wheel combination. Also, once they start making them, they could make a long production run with limited changeover. Consequently, it costs less to build them and so the manufacturer sells them cheaper.

Under normal times, I believe orders from the smaller shops would be relatively small, while WalMart's orders are somewhat constant. That theoretically would keep the manufacturer in business dealing with a 'sure thing' sale.

Now, to my point. If there is a huge INCREASE in demand from everyone, then I doubt WalMart will be first to be filled on orders. The reason is simple economics just as you pointed out. If the ammo manufacturer can make $5.00 per box sold to the distributor who supplies Joe's Pawn Shop in SC and only $0.50 per box on WalMart, they're likely going to fill the smaller distributor's orders first, especially when those orders are large when combined to all the small shops (and I believe they are now). In these times, a little efficiency can be sacrificed if the cost benefit is going to be disproportionately higher than the efficiency lost. I believe the manufacturers understand that this is an excellent time to make money hand over fist.

Sorry, I don't mean to sound like I'm teaching but I wanted to present the point as clearly as I could.

[ampaterry]

You make an excellent point, Ponycar17 -

A lot depends on the kind of contract Walmart has with any given manufacturer. I remember dealing with GE as a manufacturer of several component parts -
Their contract was so DARNED big that they got first dibs on everything, regardless of what they wanted, how many, or when. Little guys would be put off, or even business lost, before anyone would say 'no' to GE.
Piece price was MUCH lower, but volume more than made up for it -

[gs1sniper]

Artabr,
What I was saying is that there is no 9mm around.
Different subject: If there is a shortage of powder, why is Hodgdon only working 4 days a week?

[artabr]

Originally Posted by gs1sniper

Artabr,
What I was saying is that there is no 9mm around.
Different subject: If there is a shortage of powder, why is Hodgdon only working 4 days a week?

I see, sorry, my mistake.



Art