Will Israel strike Iran?

Discussion in 'General Military Arms & History Forum' started by Pistolenschutze, Nov 22, 2007.

  1. I agree, Pops. I think in many ways, the nuclear genie is far more likely to get out of the bottle today that it was during the cold war. The Soviets were at least rational and cognizant of what use of those weapons would mean, but men like Ahmadinejad are not.
  2. sabashimon

    sabashimon New Member

    Oct 26, 2007
    One thing I can tell you is that Israel will not wait for the worlds' approval if they feel that Iran is about to go "Hot"
    It is obviously a very different scenario than was Osirik, Iraq in 1981.
    For starters, Iran's facilities are spread out, and deep underground.
    For another, more enemy territory would need to be overflown, with it's inherent risks. (In 1981, The IAF made this work for them by having pilots that spoke perfect Arabic, in perfect dialect).
    An attack on Iran would require in-air re-fueling, or possibly a secret agreement with a country such as Turkey for the use of their airfields.
    Remember Turkey has strong military ties to Israel, and definately does not want a nuclear Iran. Still, this may be too much to expect, what with the very fine line that they staddle with their Muslim population.
    Another wild card is who will be PM at the time. In 1981, with Menachem Begin at the reins, Israel would do whatever neccessary for it's survival, and the hell with world opinion. I'm not so sure the current Weasel, er, Prime Minister, Ehud Olmert has the intestinal or moral fiber to make that decision. At that point I go back to my opening statement, and believe that in a worst case scenario, even he would be "made to understand" that he has no other option.
    I hear people say things like" hey, if it's okay for Israel to have nukes, why can't Iran, or anybody else also have nukes".
    The easy answer is that Israel has had those nukes for close to 40 years, and has never threatened a single nation with them. They are a deterrent, much as with the other Democracy's around the world who possess nuclear weapons.
    However, as was the case with Iraq in the 70's and 80's, Iran has made it very clear what it's intentions are, and I have no doubt that there would be a surplus of pilots ready and willing to volunteer for this mission, even were it to be very clear that there would be no return Home

  3. A most interesting post, Shimon. Thanks for your thoughts. For what it is worth, I agree with everything you said. Israel's nuclear capacity has acted as the ultimate deterrent in the Middle East for the last 40 years, and it is indeed true that Israel has never used its possession of such weapons as a threat against its neighbors or anyone else. Indeed, as I recall, Israel has never officially acknowledged that it even possesses nuclear weapons, though the fact that it does has been an open secret for a very long while.

    To put it simply, Israel cannot afford to allow Iran, or any other Middle Eastern power for that matter, to go nuclear. To do so would be tantamount to suicide. I think Israel will strike, and strike soon if the US does not do it first. If and when that happens, I'll be the first one in line applauding. To hit those nuclear sites would be only self-defense in its purest form, and to hell with what the world thinks about it.
  4. Pistole, as I've said before, the distance to Iran and size off the country make it a much more difficult mission for Israel to strike Iran's nuke facilities as compared to their 1981 attack on Iraq's nuke program.

    Sabashimon I also hear people say "why is it ok for the Israel to have nukes but not Iran?" My answear is why is alright for the average person to have a gun but not a criminal or insane person? Allowing Iran to have nuclear weapons is like allowing a raving lunatic to have a gun.
  5. There's no doubt it would be quite difficult, 17th, but the Israelis are a very creative people when it comes to such things. Look what they managed to do at Entebbe. It would certainly require some kind of refueling setup, or perhaps a secret arrangement with another of its Middle Eastern neighbors, many of whom are scared of nukes in Iran as well. I do think it more likely though, that Bush will order the strike sometime before he leaves office, maybe right after the results of the November elections are known. He has little to lose, and the world has much to gain if he does.
  6. Pistole, I've heard alot of talk that if the new U.S. president is seen as weak willed Bush would order a strike against Iran in his last days in office!
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