[LDBennett]

Try this article for an explanation of 22LR ammo shortages:


http://www.americanrifleman.org/blogs/keefe-report-ok-really-whats-going-on-with-22-rimfire

LDBennett

 

[gdmoody]

Good article.

 

[LDBennett]

The NRA is our advocate and we should be able to trust them to assess what the 22LR shortage really is. The article makes it clear that there is new demand from more guns, their are those that either hoard for profit or out of fear, their is limited capacity to produce 22LR ammo and that capacity will not be increased for what is a low profit margin product just to contain a shortage bubble. As I said earlier there is not enough capacity for 22 LR ammo to fill empty shelves every week when those shelves are emptied every week by hoarders,

LDBennett

 

[accident]

I saw the link to that article in the "on-line" section of the new magazine but I forgot to get on-line and read it.Thanks for posting it L.D. now I've read it.Good article.It pretty much says what L.D. has been saying for the past year or so.I tend to believe it. Thanks L.D.Bennett. Joe

 

[shootbrownelk]

The NRA is our advocate and we should be able to trust them to assess what the 22LR shortage really is. The article makes it clear that there is new demand from more guns, their are those that either hoard for profit or out of fear, their is limited capacity to produce 22LR ammo and that capacity will not be increased for what is a low profit margin product just to contain a shortage bubble. As I said earlier there is not enough capacity for 22 LR ammo to fill empty shelves every week when those shelves are emptied every week by hoarders,

LDBennett

That shortage bubble is going on better than 3 years now, c'mon.

 

[gvw3]

I have been to several gun shows this year and none of them had much 22lr ammo. I will be going to one this sunday. I no longer buy into any of this. This year has been worse than last year around here.

Every time my wife goes to Walmart she looks for 22lr. Never any. I go to Cabelas at least once a week. Maybe once or twice this year they had some. I go to my LGS 2 or 3 times a month. If they have any its Remington thunderbolts of something overpriced.

Its been way to long now. I don't know where its going but I no longer believe hoarders or resellers are getting all this.

 

[carver]

The plain truth is that there isn't much money to be made by the manufactures that make .22 ammo, and production has not kept up with demand. We have many more shooters today than we did 10 years ago, and many more .22 rifles, and hand guns on the market. Most stores, and LGS's, have raised the price on .22 ammo to around $.10 per bullet, and higher. It's almost as cheap to shoot .223, or 7.62X39. I firmly believe that this is the new norm. I don't think we will be seeing a lot of .22 ammo on the shelves until the manufacturers raise the price to $.15 a bullet, or higher. Supply, and demand. The supply won't meet the demand until the manufacturers start to make a profit that makes new plants affordable. Or every body stops shooting .22's! It doesn't matter who is buy this ammo, or for what reason.

 

[Show Low]

I think by now everyone realizes that there are many things afoot causing the shortages. One thing I have never heard discussed but I think is very plausible, is pure human greed in the distribution chain.

Let's say a particular distributor normally sells his ammo to an established list of retail outlets for a xx profit margin but now is approached by the bottom feeders who sell via the online auction sites for insane profits, that are willing to buy huge quantities giving the distributor a xxxx profit margin.

I doubt many would pass on the opportunity to double their profit for no more effort than usual.

I'm not saying this is a main reason but it has always struck me as odd how you can go to any of the online auction sites and see tens of thousands of rounds being sold every day and see scarce to rare powder being listed in 8 lb jugs in huge quantities that most of us only dream of having.

The gun show sleeze bags are likely the ones you see lined up at walmart stores every wednesday morning to get first pick, the auction site sellers are in the distribution chain..... just downstream from very greedy distributors!

 

[LDBennett]

Ammo manufacturers are business people. Some are corporations that have boards of directors whose fiduciary responsibility is to share holders. That is, they are expected to make a return on investment for share holders and not blunder into poor financial decisions.

The current situation, if it follows the past, will return to normal when the frenzied buying and hoarding and greed play out. That has not yet happened for 22LR ammo because OBAMA is still president and he claims to have "a phone and a pen". Will more 22LR capacity definitely be need then? They don't know and doing their duty they will wait until things return to normal before committing to more capacity or new ammo factories for a product that is not all that profitable. Maybe price increases will force the issue (??). Maybe just waiting until the next presidential election will return an answer (??). But there is hoarding going on across the nation and greedy people buying up ammo to re-sale at an exorbitant profit. Until that stops no responsible business person is going to commit to more 22LR capacity with a new ammo plant.

Sorry for those of you who think that is wrong and that the ammo manufacturers should increase capacity in these extra ordinary times to satisfy your needs. But that is not the way the business world works. If such decisions were made and they end up with excess capacity for 22LR ammo after the bubble busts then their fiduciary responsibility may be questioned.

22LR ammo purchases for the most part today are emotional purchase. When the fear of not having enough ammo available goes away with a political change then and only then can any manufacture make a reasonable decision to increase capacity. It would be far worse if they jump on more capacity, it becomes excessive, and we loose capacity for 22LR ammo to bankruptcy or other financial disasters that reduces the capacity below what we have today.

The article explains all of this. The NRA, our advocate for anything gun related, has investigated the shortages and this article is their conclusion. If we cannot believe the NRA then who in the gun world can we believe? How about the conspiracy advocates who offer no real proof? Or the on-line people who refuse to believe that the 22LR ammo companies are operating three shifts and are running at maximum capacity, with no proof of that allegation? We are not supposed to believe the NRA's representative who have the ability to visit the operation of ammo factories?

This will go away eventually and get better eventually. Our duty is not to panic and hoard 22LR ammo. Buy what you need and no more so others can shoot 22's too. You may just have to sit this out with no 22LR ammo until we totally dump the liberal progressive president and congress.

LDBennett

 

[soundguy]

That shortage bubble is going on better than 3 years now, c'mon.

I agree, and, if there are more 22kr guns now than before, that bubble may be the new normal.

additional, our distrobution system sucks if north and western states see 22lr frequently, even in limited qty, and then other places like fl dont see it for years.

there is a problem..


if manufacturing qty are low and nit to be increased, then allocation needs to be flat out even. Demand can safely be assumed to be 100% and equal everywhere. Thus distribution should match

 

[jim brady]

Great post, LD. Also thanks for some much needed wisdom. I agree that much of this will pass when (and if) Obozo leaves office. I've seen the same things as the others - no .22 LR on the shelves - or IF you see it, it will be a scalper at a Gun Show.

Personally, I'd bought enough in the years before Obozo's first election to last until he is done. As for the other calibers, I've always scrafted up range brass and reloaded every piece, so I do have a rather healthy stash.

 

[LDBennett]

Even if distribution is uniform across America who is to say that a single persons knows if and when his LGS really gets ammo. What is to stop a LGS from selling the ammo he gets on-line and never put out for his customers? We do know that major outlets get ammo every week and that it is sold in minutes after the delivery or when the store opens. The accounts of that are here all the time. We also know that some LGS put it out mid-day and whomever is in the store at the tme buys it up immediately. We get reports of that too all the time. In each case people buy it up to hoard or to re-sale at a high profit. That also is well reported here.

The bottom line is we, the people, are to blame for the shortages, not the ammo manufactures. They do their job and are now running at full capacity according to multiple reports seen here and other places. We have to stop hoarding to relieve the pressure. When things return to normal and the shortages are still there, then the ammo manufactures will entertain the idea of increased capacity. But they will not increase capacity until they are sure the real normal demand exceeds the current capacity. They have been through this before (the last time was six years ago and some tell me it happened even before that on some other political happening in the last couple decades).

LDBennett

 

[soundguy]

your post assumes some inventory. No 22lr at any of the walmarts with 45 m of me. No place on shelf. None at dicks, gander has had it once this year. One of my WalMart got 6 whole boxes ( individual boxes, not cases) over a year ago.

that's not even distribution.

its nit coming I and selling out in 2 seconds, its just never coming in.

with low production, they should roll distribution is, make sure each state gets equal ants per capita, if that means staggered distri, then so be it.

some states getting some and some getting none is not even distro!

 

[Show Low]

Looks like plenty of 22 ammo on *********.com. Here is an ad for 3,333 rds and looking at the photo it appears to be half of what was in the original box! I wonder how many boxes this guy has or who his distributor is?
http://www.*********.com/Auction/ViewItem.aspx?Item=455233083

 

[soundguy]

10 cents per round

 

[Show Low]

10 cents per round

"Legitimate" merchants are selling them cheaper. I bought some 22lr Tuesday for 4¢ and 5¢ per round at a local shop. There are honest merchants out there.

 

[soundguy]

yup, 10 cent is nearing scalper

 

[carver]

I will not pay more than .10 cents per round. At least not until the 22 shortage is history, and the new prices established.

 

[soundguy]

depending on shipping and the ormd tag, that GB could go higher. I just estimated from buy it now price and shipping via weiht, no special handling, it will bed adult SIG too, so it will almost undoubtedly go higher then 10 per

 

[LDBennett]

That link is to a greedy re-seller. That is $18 dollars a brick of 500 at Bass Pro Shop and the seller in the link is getting $50 a brick.

This totally illustrates the problem.

LDBennett